@FastMoneyLabs’ Best Bet for TNF - 9/15

The Kansas City Chiefs will be without their Pro-Bowl caliber Kicker, Harrison Butker, tonight (officially ruled out with ankle injury), which throws a wrench in the handicap and raises two questions: (1) Who will kick their field goals? and, (2) Can they be trusted?

K.C. signed former Jets kicker Matt Ammendola to answer question #1. And based on that, I’m speculating the answer to question #2 is probably no, Head Coach Andy Reid doesn’t trust this guy. Maybe in certain situations, but I’m willing to bet Coach Reid will go for it on 4th down more than usual tonight.

If we’re right and the Chiefs go for it at least twice, I like their chances to succeed on at least one based on their 66.7% 4th down conversion rate (tied for league-best last season).

Which raises two more questions: (1) Can we bet on such an event to happen? and, (2) Is there value to be had? And I found the answers to be: (1) yes, at Draftkings Sportsbook, and (2) YES.

I feel the Chiefs can be trusted for at least one for the reasons outlined above. And even if they fail — the Chargers should pick up the slack. The guessing game gets much less complicated with them, since last year’s team attempted the fourth most 4th down conversions in the league (2.0 attempts/GP), and succeeded at a 64.7% rate — 3rd best.

The Chargers’ 4th down conversion tendencies are extremely predictable too, and fit nicely with tonight’s expected game script:

The table shows that LA go for it most often when losing — which makes logical sense — and these situations tend to arise most frequently on the road, away from home like tonight.

Given the market has LA priced as 4.5-point underdogs vs. the Chiefs, it’s reasonably likely they’ll be trailing at some point and need to take chances by going for it on 4th downs.

That type of game script is fairly common for Chiefs opponents, and when it happens, the numbers are extremely promising for Total Conversions Prop bettors:

Primetime Prop lines can be sharp and tough to beat, but let’s be honest: did anyone even know this prop market existed before today? If it’s only on Draftkings, there’s a real chance it’s mispriced on lack of attention. Or, maybe I’m just slow (I’ll put +110 odds on that). Regardless, I trust my analysis and wagered accordingly (risk 0.69 units to win 1u @ +145).

Over 1.5 Total 4th Down Conversions @ +145 (DraftKings)