@FastMoneyLabs’ Best Bet for TNF - 9/15

Here’s why I expect 2+ 4th Down Conversions (combined) in the match:

The Kansas City Chiefs will be without their Pro-Bowl caliber Kicker, Harrison Butker, tonight (officially ruled out with ankle injury), which throws a wrench in the handicap and raises two questions: (1) Who will kick their field goals? and, (2) Can they be trusted?

K.C. signed former Jets kicker Matt Ammendola to answer question #1. And based on that, I’m speculating the answer to question #2 is probably no, Head Coach Andy Reid doesn’t trust this guy. Maybe in certain situations, but I’m willing to bet Coach Reid will go for it on 4th down more than usual tonight.

If we’re right and the Chiefs go for it at least twice, I like their chances to succeed on at least one based on their 66.7% 4th down conversion rate (tied for league-best last season).

Which raises two more questions: (1) Can we bet on such an event to happen? and, (2) Is there value to be had? And I found the answers to be: (1) yes, at Draftkings Sportsbook, and (2) YES.

⚡️ Get a $1,250 Risk-Free Bet!
New Customers in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY.

I feel the Chiefs can be trusted for at least one for the reasons outlined above. And even if they fail — the Chargers should pick up the slack. The guessing game gets much less complicated with them, since last year’s team attempted the fourth most 4th down conversions in the league (2.0 attempts/GP), and succeeded at a 64.7% rate — 3rd best.

The Chargers’ 4th down conversion tendencies are extremely predictable too, and fit nicely with tonight’s expected game script:


The table shows that LA go for it most often when losing — which makes logical sense — and these situations tend to arise most frequently on the road, away from home like tonight.

Given the market has LA priced as 4.5-point underdogs vs. the Chiefs, it’s reasonably likely they’ll be trailing at some point and need to take chances by going for it on 4th downs.

That type of game script is fairly common for Chiefs opponents, and when it happens, the numbers are extremely promising for Total Conversions Prop bettors:


Primetime Prop lines can be sharp and tough to beat, but let’s be honest: did anyone even know this prop market existed before today? If it’s only on Draftkings, there’s a real chance it’s mispriced on lack of attention. Or, maybe I’m just slow (I’ll put +110 odds on that). Regardless, I trust my analysis and wagered accordingly (risk 0.69 units to win 1u @ +145).

The Pick

Over 1.5 Total 4th Down Conversions @ +145 (DraftKings)


Free Bets & Offers

💰 Bet $10 on any NFL game & Win $200 when a TD is scored! 🏈
Exclusively to IL, KS & LA only
⚡️ Get a $1,250 Risk-Free Bet!
New Customers in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY.
Bet $100 & Get $100 in Free Bets
T&C's apply 21+ VA only.
Join WynnBet
⚡️ $1,000 Risk-Free Bet on ANY Sport!
Available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, KS, LA, MI, MS, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY.
Get our experts' latest picks and free bets straight to your inbox!
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2022 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.7.10 (1)