@FastMoneyLabs' Monday Night Football Best Bet - 11/14

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

1st Half Prop Pick

Going right back to one of our favorite prop markets here. I’ve mentioned in the past and it still rings true: The Eagles are the most dominant and efficient 1st half team this season, as measured by EPA per Play on both Offense and Defense. They’re scoring touchdowns, forcing turnovers, and making opponents pay by converting favorable field position into more points.

They’ve now scored 14+ first half points in all eight games, and 20+ in all four home games. In a Week 3 visit to Washington, they exploded for 24 points in the 2nd quarter alone. Tonight, they’re back in Philly where the team holds a strong home field advantage.

I also like how the Eagles are thriving in the National Spotlight that is Primetime. Tonight marks their 4th Primetime kickoff of the campaign, and they’re averaging 19.33 first half points in these spots with the lowest output (14 points vs. Texans) coming on a short rest week. Tonight, the rest factor swings in their favor. They’ve had 10-days off since last appearing on Thursday Night Football two weeks ago, and I view this positively for their scoring potential tonight.

With all that said — how could we not back Philly 1st Half Team Total over 13.5 as our best bet? I’ll go as far as saying this might be the ultimate wagon play of the decade right now.

This is juiced down to -135 or lower at most shops, but you can still get -118 at FanDuel Sportsbook (at least at time of writing).

Let’s ride this thing till the wheels fall off.

Note: if you can’t get the 13.5 line, then I suggest pivoting to Philly over 1.5 First Half Touchdowns, which has also achieved 8-0 wagon status. I also like how this angle removes the risk of a missed extra point.

The Pick: Eagles 1st Half Team Total over 13.5 (-118) via FanDuel Sportsbook

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