78% of spread tickets are on the Broncos tonight. Hereās why Iām fading the public and backing Seattle:
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) and Football Outsiders (two independent organizations) each have the fair line for tonightās contest at +/- 5.7, nearly a full point below market.
- The difference is likely driven by public interest in the Russell Wilson return to Seattle narrative.
- There was a similar situation yesterday when Baker Mayfield took on the Browns, and we saw how that went for himā¦
- Mayfield had the benefit of facing his former team at home. Wilson isnāt as lucky, with tonightās contest taking place at Lumen Field in Seattle, widely regarded as one of the loudest stadiums in the country.
- Wilson reaped the benefits of the Seahawksā outsized home-field advantage and ā12th manā fan base for years. Now heās the enemy.
- The Broncosā main advantage on paper for tonightās contest relates to defense; however, their top linebacker Josey Jewel has officially been ruled out, and starting edge rusher Randy Gregory is questionable to play.
- Looking at offenses, PFF projects a balanced matchup, with Denver and Seattle offenses ranking 17th and 19th, respectively, entering Week 1. Which begs the question: is this Russell Wilson narrativeĀ reallyĀ worth a point to the line?