78% of spread tickets are on the Broncos tonight. Here’s why I’m fading the public and backing Seattle:
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) and Football Outsiders (two independent organizations) each have the fair line for tonight’s contest at +/- 5.7, nearly a full point below market.
- The difference is likely driven by public interest in the Russell Wilson return to Seattle narrative.
- There was a similar situation yesterday when Baker Mayfield took on the Browns, and we saw how that went for him…
- Mayfield had the benefit of facing his former team at home. Wilson isn’t as lucky, with tonight’s contest taking place at Lumen Field in Seattle, widely regarded as one of the loudest stadiums in the country.
- Wilson reaped the benefits of the Seahawks’ outsized home-field advantage and ‘12th man’ fan base for years. Now he’s the enemy.
- The Broncos’ main advantage on paper for tonight’s contest relates to defense; however, their top linebacker Josey Jewel has officially been ruled out, and starting edge rusher Randy Gregory is questionable to play.
- Looking at offenses, PFF projects a balanced matchup, with Denver and Seattle offenses ranking 17th and 19th, respectively, entering Week 1. Which begs the question: is this Russell Wilson narrative really worth a point to the line?