Our Friday Night Parlay routine was fun, but we’re shifting to Sundays going forward which projects to be even more fun. With that said, given NFL player prop lines and prices move quickly, I prefer to lock it in today (Friday). Here’s who I’m rolling with:
@FastMoneyLabs’ NFL Sunday Parlay: Week 2
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Leg 1: Tom Brady over 0.5 Interceptions (-130) vs. New Orleans
- The New Orleans Saints are TB12’s kryptonite.
- Brady is 0-4 in the matchup with a 71.5 passer rating since joining Tampa.
- He’s tossed more Interceptions (8) than Pass TDs (6) in the four games combined.
- This bet cashed in all four matchups, and he threw 2+ INTs in both visits to New Orleans.
- The Saints secondary ranked #2 in PFF coverage grades last season. They intercepted opposing QBs at least once in 7 of 8 (87.5%) home games and 12 of 17 (70.6%) overall.
- They underperformed in what projected to be an easier matchup last week vs. ATL; but importantly, they escaped healthy and should be more prepared for Week 2.
- Also supporting this pick is the fact the Bucs’ 3 top WRs are all listed questionable on the team’s injury report (Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Mike Evans). If one or more of those players can’t go, the price for this prop might rise, which inspired me to lock it in now.
Leg 2: Christian Kirk over 4.5 Receptions (+120) vs. Indianapolis
- Targeted an impressive 12 times and hauled 6 catches in his Jaguars debut last week.
- He clearly established himself as QB Trevor Lawrence’s safety net. The young quarterback often looked Kirk’s way when under pressure, leading to quick and easy catches.
- He gets another favorable matchup this week vs. a Colts secondary that ranked bottom-8 of PFF coverage grades last week. That is an embarrassing mark for a playoff hopeful considering their opponent was Houston.
- Kirk’s veteran presence in an otherwise youthful offense should keep him on the field and make him a top target and receptions machine in the Jags’ home opener this Sunday.
- All these things lead me to see tremendous value in his 4.5 Receptions line if you can find it. It just moved to 5.5 as I was typing this article, but I still like it there at plus money odds. I locked in both versions but for the official lay, I’m rolling with o5.5 (+120) for leg 2.
Leg 3: Curtis Samuel over 3.5 Receptions (-160) vs. Detroit
- This shifty 6th year wideout was targeted a team-high 11 times in Week 1, finishing with 8 catches (+4.5 vs. this line) and 55 receiving yards.
- This continued a trend we saw in pre-season, where Samuel led the starting WR group in Target Share under new QB Carson Wentz.
- It’s hard to see that trend stopping in Week 2 vs. a Lions secondary that was nothing short of manhandled last week by the Eagles’ pass game.
- The domination we witnessed in Detroit was largely expected given their defense graded as the 2nd worst in pass coverage last season by PFF.
- Given the Lions didn’t upgrade their cornerbacks in the offseason, they’ll continue to be vulnerable to big plays and are a good defense to target for WR props until they prove otherwise.
- For all these reasons, it’s hard to overstate how much I love Samuel’s chances to catch 4+ passes here.
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I got +532 odds for the Parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units to win 2.66U
Parlaying bets is a high-risk/high-reward strategy, so please remember to bet responsibly on these tickets, and best of luck!
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