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@FastMoneyLabs' NFL Sunday Picks - 11/27

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Joe Burrow vs. Titans

Forecasts have the wind whistling to the tune of 18 MPH in Nashville today. Not the most divine environment for passing props, but the Bengals’ starting Running Back Joe Mixon is in concussion protocol. While Samaje Perine is a serviceable backup, the Titans run defense has been impenetrable this year, ranking #1 in DVOA. This leaves the Bengals no choice but to attack through the air vs. an opponent that naturally attracts pass-heavy game plans anyway. Opposing Quarterbacks are attempting 42.1 passes per game vs. the Titans since Week 2. Betting them to attempt 37+ passes hit in 89% of those contests, while 38+ cashed in 78%.

The Pick: Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-122) via FD

FML pick

James Conner vs. Chargers

Only saw 14 carries last week, but it was a blowout scenario in Mexico City. The week prior, he rushed 21x in more favorable game script. Today he gets a Chargers defense that ranks #30 vs. the run both on the season and in the last 4 weeks per Football Outsiders DVOA. I also like how Kyler Murray and Hollywood Brown are both expected back, providing a theoretical boost to the chances this game stays competitive. Chargers opponents are averaging 23.3 RB carries per game this season, and Conner is that guy in Arizona right now, since the team released Eno Benjamin. For what it’s worth, there’s no need to preserve Conner for next week. The Cardinals’ bye week is on deck.

The Pick: Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (+104) via Caesars

FML pick
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