Hello, old friend! If you followed along last season, stop reading right now and go lock this in. Chances are you’re already familiar with this prop I’m about to highlight and are very comfortable with it.
@FastMoneyLabs’ NFL Week One Kicker Prop Pick
Matt Gay (LA Rams Kicker) vs. Buffalo Bills
When I noticed Football props starting to drop, this was the first place I looked. I was expecting a 7.5 line (which I still would’ve bet) but was delighted to find 6.5 (-130) hanging at most shops. I’m surprised we’re getting this line honestly, since 6.5 is a key number for kicker props. All it takes is 2 Field Goals and an Extra Point to cash the ticket.
Betting Matt Gay to cover this 6.5 number is 24-6 (80%) including postseason since he joined the Rams in 2020. Looking at his home games, the hit rate improves to 12-2 (85.7%). He’s talented, but the kicker friendly environment at SoFi stadium definitely helps, since their dome design shields him from the wind.
Below shows his game-by-game results at SoFi Stadium with the Rams:
Now can see why I love this 6.5 line? He’s been smashing through it, covering it by an average margin of +2.29 points with a median value of +1.50.
So why is the line so low? It’s because they’re facing a dominant defense in the Bills. They were already elite and project to improve this season thanks to several key acquisitions, headlined by the signing of Super Bowl champion Von Miller from the LA Rams.
That is exactly why I love this prop, though. The Bills had a top-12 red zone defense last season, and if they improve (or at least stay the same), then it’s reasonable to expect the Rams might struggle to score touchdowns on Thursday. And if we’re right about that, then the spotlight turns to Matt Gay to put points on the board. If the Rams can at least march down the field a couple times (which I trust them to do), then Gay should cash this number fairly easily via Field Goals.
Do as you wish my friends, but I’m locking this 6.5 line in while we can at the reasonable price of -130. In the event the line moves, I’d still take it up to 7.5 (-120ish), which has a similar historical hit rate as 6.5 (see table above).
The Pick: Matt Gay over 6.5 Kicking Points (-130) vs. Buffalo Bills (Odds via DraftKings)
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