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@FastMoneyLabs’ Opening Night NFL Card - 9/8

In case you missed it, my top bet for tonight is still the prop we locked in last week. It’s still available — market is sleeping on it, and I have no clue why. Nearly every projection has him closer to 9+ Kicking Points tonight. If you didn’t lock it in yet, I highly recommend it. Read about that prop pick here.

Next, I’ll highlight two different bets I’ve since added to my card for Opening Night:

DraftKings Builder (-110)

I built this bet using the Same Game Parlay feature at Draftkings Sportsbook and coined it as a Bankroll Builder, because when -110 odds popped up on my screen, I almost passed out.

Both teams to score a 1st Half Touchdown? Hell yeah. For a matchup with a high game total (o/u 51.5) and tight spread (+/- 2.5), I’m surprised to get -215 odds on a bet they’ll each score a 1H TD. I’ll take that wager with confidence for Leg 1.

Both teams to score 2+ TDs… in the 1st Quarter?! Hell no! I wouldn’t mind some early scores, but 2+ Each in the 1st frame?! That’s just crazy. Y’all know I prefer betting Overs, but I’m taking the Under on that.

See the ticket below. I really can’t believe we’re getting -110 odds on this. It was tempting to bet heavier, but given it feels too good to be true — I recommend exercising discipline and betting to win 1 unit (i.e., normal bet size).

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Anytime Touchdown Pick (-135)

Odds via FanDuel

It’s chalky, but how could I not add this to my card? He’s going up against a banged up Bills’ secondary that’s still without All-Pro CB Tre’Davious White (recovering from ACL surgery), and without him, I don’t see Buffalo stopping the Kupp train tonight.

The 2022 Super Bowl MVP erupted for 22 touchdowns in 21 games (regular season + playoffs) with QB Matt Stafford last season, including 1+ TD in 9 of 11 (82%) at SoFi Stadium where they play tonight.

The Rams’ addition of WR Allen Robinson in the off-season dampens Kupp’s scoring outlook a bit, but given QB/WR chemistry can take time to develop: I prefer to back the tried and true combo (Kupp/Stafford) for a TD connection on Opening Night.

It’s never fun laying -135 for a TD prop, but given the Bills injury situation and the bet’s incredible hit rate last season (71% overall, 82% at SoFi Stadium), I feel it’s justified.