@FastMoneyLabs’ Sunday NFL Player Prop Picks - 9/10

Widely circled as a breakout candidate. He’s been surrounded with better receivers and a new, offensive minded HC in Doug Pederson, previously with the Eagles. This might not be the fairest comparison, but it’s worth noting Jalen Hurts averaged 11.5 Rush attempts per game started under Pederson, which dropped to 9.3 per game without him the next season. Lawrence’s skill set is different, but he still presents a 2-way threat that Pederson should look to deploy.

Soft Week 1 matchup. Washington allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season & were vulnerable to the run. Opposing QBs cleared this 16.5 rush yards line in 12 of 17 (71%) games vs. them. Excluding games with immobile QBs (those with 2 rush attempts or less), the hit rate improved to 9/11 (82%) vs. this 16.5 line. And they didn’t just cover, they smashed through the line, exceeding it by an average margin of +19.5 yards (median margin +14.5).

Lawrence himself covered this 16.5 line at a 59% clip last season, averaging 19.6 rush yards per game as a rookie with median value of 21.

Given Lawrence’s history,  favorable season-long outlook and the soft matchup, I’m surprised to find this 16.5 number still hanging and widely available. I locked it in to win 1 unit at the best odds I could find (-108 at FD).

This isn’t the sexiest pick, but it feels like a gem. This former New York Giant is oozing with talent, but for whatever reason, it just didn’t work out in New York. Fast forward to 2022, and he gets a much-needed fresh start on a new team, and I like his chances to hit the ground running. Here’s why:

For starters, I like the simple fact that he’s a Tight End, and Jags’ new HC Doug Pederson & OC Press Taylor are known for heavily featuring that position in their offenses. If you liked Zach Ertz & Dallas Goedert’s production out of that spot in Philly, then buckle up for Engram, because he projects to be that guy this year in Jacksonville.

Building on that, I like how his new QB Trevor Lawrence targeted tight ends more than most QBs last season. The best example being his connection with Dan Arnold, a TE that absolutely thrived next to Lawrence after being traded to the Jags mid-season. It didn’t take those two much time to get going, either. If you enjoyed betting Dan Arnold’s reception props with us last season, then you should know Evan Engram is effectively him, but with more talent and a higher ceiling.Arnold is still with the team, but Engram should get the lions share of TE targets based on the 1 year / $9MM deal he just signed.

Betting Evan Engram to catch 3+ passes was 10-5 (67%) last season. That was in the abysmal New York Giants offense.

Now with a new team & brighter outlook, this 2.5 receptions line feels way too low, especially considering the easy matchup. I locked it in to win a unit at the best odds I could find (-105 at MGM).