Before we dive in, let’s check the weather forecast.
Alrighty then. It’s supposed to rain, a situation I associate with run-heavy game script. It’s also a short week and divisional matchup — two situations that also support running. If I’m right, then the Falcons hold a clear advantage tonight. They rank #4 in rushing offense (as measured by Football Outsiders DVOA) and achieved it mostly without #1 Running Back Cordarrelle Patterson. Now Patterson’s finally healthy and coming off a 2 touchdown performance. He’s now scored 5 touchdowns in just 5 games played this season.
Meanwhile, the Panthers’ run defense ranks bottom-10 in Football Outsiders DVOA and JUST SURRENDERED 5 TOUCHDOWNS to Joe Mixon (4 rushing + 1 receiving).
Betting Patterson to score vs. Carolina is also 2-0 in two career matchups when he’s Atlanta’s featured back. It’s worth noting that he’s coming off injury and it’s a short week, which might cap his overall volume potential tonight. Even still — Patterson should see plenty of red zone touches, which is the key to cashing touchdown props.
I’m honestly surprised this is widely available at plus money right now. I don’t expect it to close that way and wagered accordingly by risking a unit @ best available odds (currently +114 via Barstool Sportsbook, Bet Rivers or Sugar House).
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