@FastMoneyLabs' Thursday Night Football Best Bet - 11/10

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Atlanta Falcons (4-5) @ Carolina Panthers (2-7)

Before we dive in, let’s check the weather forecast.

rain gif

Alrighty then. It’s supposed to rain, a situation I associate with run-heavy game script. It’s also a short week and divisional matchup — two situations that also support running. If I’m right, then the Falcons hold a clear advantage tonight. They rank #4 in rushing offense (as measured by Football Outsiders DVOA) and achieved it mostly without #1 Running Back Cordarrelle Patterson. Now Patterson’s finally healthy and coming off a 2 touchdown performance. He’s now scored 5 touchdowns in just 5 games played this season.

Meanwhile, the Panthers’ run defense ranks bottom-10 in Football Outsiders DVOA and JUST SURRENDERED 5 TOUCHDOWNS to Joe Mixon (4 rushing + 1 receiving)

Betting Patterson to score vs. Carolina is also 2-0 in two career matchups when he’s Atlanta’s featured back. It’s worth noting that he’s coming off injury and it’s a short week, which might cap his overall volume potential tonight. Even still — Patterson should see plenty of red zone touches, which is the key to cashing touchdown props.

I’m honestly surprised this is widely available at plus money right now. I don’t expect it to close that way and wagered accordingly by risking a unit @ best available odds (currently +114 via Barstool Sportsbook, Bet Rivers or Sugar House).

FML's Pick

barstool

CORDARRELLE PATTERSON ANYTIME TD @ +114

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Broncos

DEN

-110

+8.5

Ravens

BAL

-110

-8.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Browns

CLE

-110

-7

Texans

HOU

-110

+7

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Commanders

WAS

-110

-2.5

Giants

NYG

-110

+2.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Jaguars

JAX

-115

+1

Lions

DET

-105

-1

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Jets

NYJ

-110

+3

Vikings

MIN

-110

-3

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Packers

GB

-110

-3.5

Bears

CHI

-110

+3.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Steelers

PIT

-110

-1

Falcons

ATL

-110

+1

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Titans

TEN

-110

+4.5

Eagles

PHI

-110

-4.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Dolphins

MIA

-110

+4

49ers

SF

-110

-4

NFL | Sun 12/04, 9:05 PM
Seahawks

SEA

-110

-7

Rams

LAR

-110

+7

NFL | Sun 12/04, 9:05 PM

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