@FastMoneyLabs' Thursday Night Football Value Pick & Best Bet - 10/27

$FML’s Best Bet for Thursday Night Football

Tom Brady vs. Baltimore Ravens

When you can’t run, what do you do? When you’re trailing (early & often), what do you do?

When Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones (possibly) are your WRs, you have the 🐐 at QB, yet you’re 3-4… what do you do?

THROW THE BALL. A LOT. That’s the current mantra in Tampa, as Brady’s now attempted 40+ passes in 5 straight contests. Assuming he slams some pregame espressos, I’m optimistic that trend continues tonight (emphasis on the need for espressos here, since previous $FML research revealed TB12’s bedtime clashes with primetime).

For my Best Bet, I considered backing Brady to Attempt 40+ Passes but decided to pivot to the Completions market. I’ll explain that decision below.

First, see how Brady’s performing vs. this Completions line in recent Home games (screenshot courtesy of Props.Cash research service):

fml

It’s beautiful. Stunning. And intriguing after he posted below-average completion rates in back-to-back road games. Tonight he returns home, the site of that stunning chart, where he tends to post better completion rates. If I’m right that Brady’s a progression candidate in the completion % category, then he could realistically complete 26+ with just 36-39 passes. Hence why I prefer Completions over Attempts tonight. We just need his WRs to stop dropping the damn ball… is that too much to ask? (Cc: Mike Evans).

Even if the drops continue — I see a decent chance he completes 26+ purely on volume. He may be old, grumpy and sleepy, but besides that: I feel the stars are aligned on this play at any number up to 25.5 tonight.

$FML's Pick

fanduel

TOM BRADY OVER 24.5 COMPLETIONS @ -128

⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
fd

Free Bets & Offers


🍗 Thanksgiving Offer 🏈 Bet $20, Get $100!
21+ in CO, VA, MI. Promo code GET100
Claim Now
Bet $5 & Get $150 in Free Bets 💰
AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WY, WV 21+ only
CLAIM NOW
Bet $10 on any World Cup game & Win $200 When A Goal Is Scored ⚽️💰
Available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, KS, LA, MI, NJ, TN, VA, WV, WY. 21+ only
CLAIM OFFER
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2022 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.8.1 (1)