@FastMoneyLabs' Thursday Night Football Value Pick & Best Bet - 10/27

Thu 27 Oct 2022 18.03

Tom Brady vs. Baltimore Ravens

When you can’t run, what do you do? When you’re trailing (early & often), what do you do?

When Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones (possibly) are your WRs, you have the 🐐 at QB, yet you’re 3-4… what do you do?

THROW THE BALL. A LOT. That’s the current mantra in Tampa, as Brady’s now attempted 40+ passes in 5 straight contests. Assuming he slams some pregame espressos, I’m optimistic that trend continues tonight (emphasis on the need for espressos here, since previous $FML research revealed TB12’s bedtime clashes with primetime).

For my Best Bet, I considered backing Brady to Attempt 40+ Passes but decided to pivot to the Completions market. I’ll explain that decision below.

First, see how Brady’s performing vs. this Completions line in recent Home games (screenshot courtesy of Props.Cash research service):

It’s beautiful. Stunning. And intriguing after he posted below-average completion rates in back-to-back road games. Tonight he returns home, the site of that stunning chart, where he tends to post better completion rates. If I’m right that Brady’s a progression candidate in the completion % category, then he could realistically complete 26+ with just 36-39 passes. Hence why I prefer Completions over Attempts tonight. We just need his WRs to stop dropping the damn ball… is that too much to ask? (Cc: Mike Evans).

Even if the drops continue — I see a decent chance he completes 26+ purely on volume. He may be old, grumpy and sleepy, but besides that: I feel the stars are aligned on this play at any number up to 25.5 tonight.