Mentioned on Twitter earlier… I’m expecting a HEAVY dose of Stevenson tonight. Damien Harris is out, and the Pats’ next game (after tonight) isn’t till Monday, December 12th. Bill Belichick game plans can be tough to predict, but it doesn’t take rocket science to know they need to lean on Stevenson here.
I’m already on him to get 16+ carries (-128/Caesars) but just in case I’m wrong on the game script, I want some action on Rhamondre’s reception prop. He’s been a target MAGNET lately (33 catches last 5 games), and the Bills defense ranks 20th in DVOA defending the pass vs. RB. Even if the Pats do lean on the run, I like Stevenson’s chances to secure 5+ catches with Harris out.
He’s rightly earned the ire of Fantasy Footballers this season, but if one thing has been constant: it’s 5+ targets and 35+ receiving yards. Davis attracted at least 5 targets in 9 of 10 games this season and hauled in 35+ receiving yards in 8 of 10. Tonight, I’m trusting him to do a little better than that by clearing 45+ vs. a Patriots defense that ranks 3rd defending the pass overall but 20th specifically vs. WR2s like Davis (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA measure). They’re also allowing 11.5 yards per completion (9th most).
I noticed Davis only has 6 yards after the catch (YAC) COMBINED in the last 4 weeks. That’s BAD, but he’s way too talented to sustain a trend like that, right? Even if YAC doesn’t improve, his Average Depth of Target (ADOT) is about 16 yards this season. Meanwhile, his Receptions Prop line is set at o/u 3.5. Even if he gets hooked and finishes with 3 catches, he could still clear 45+ receiving yards based on that ADOT.
I risked 0.75 units on the combo @ +180 to win 1.35 units at MGM!
If you’re feelin risky, you could consider sprinkling a 2nd version with both players to score a Tuddy, too, at +950!