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@FastMoneyLabs' TNF Pick: Raiders @ Rams - 12/8

This week's NFL Thursday Night Football matchup provides a perfect opportunity to capitalize on a massive weakness in one of the teams and $FML is here to show you how.

Kyren Williams vs. Raiders

Only one target Sunday, but that should change tonight vs. a Raiders team allowing the most receiving yards to Running Backs (RB) these days. Here’s how RB tandems did vs. them through the air in the last 3 weeks:

  • Week 11 / Broncos RBs: 62 rec yards
  • Week 12 / Seahawks RBs: 71 rec yards
  • Week 13 / Chargers RBs: 67 rec yards

Tonight, the Rams are touchdown underdogs and expected to play from behind. While Cam Akers has emerged as LA’s primary ball carrier, Vegas is stellar defending the run limiting opponents to 3.97 yards per carry this season. Akers has been less involved in the receiving game, which leads me to expect a bump in Williams’ usage after a quiet week.

The Rams’ QB situation is clearly wobbly and uncertain, but I see that impacting LA’s Wide Receiver output more than Running Backs. At a number this low, all it takes is 2-3 screen passes and/or dump offs to cash the ticket.

I personally put 1.5 units on this @ -115. Odds moved to -120 since then. I’ll track the pick there and would take this prop at the 12.5 line, too. 

FML's Pick

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Kyren Williams over 11.5r receiving yards @ -120
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