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$FML's Monday Night SGP: Patriots @ Cardinals - 12/12


$FML got this SGP straight out of the Lab. See what he was cooked up below!

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Leg #1:

Leg 1: Kyler Murray 30+ Rushing Yards

The Patriots deploy Man Coverage at the 2nd highest rate in the league (45.8% per PFF) — a scheme that can be countered effectively by mobile QBs like Murray via scrambling. The two most comparable QBs (Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields) combined for 189 rushing yards earlier this season vs. New England. While Murray is no Fields or Jackson, he’s averaging 56.4 on the ground in his last 5 overall (+26.4 vs. line) and 41.6 (+11.6 vs. line) in his last 10 on home turf since last season. Betting him to eclipse 30+ is 6-0 since October 9th. I also like how Murray’s rushing production is evenly balanced between Designed Runs (202 yards) and Scrambling (204 yards) this season, according to PFF.

Note: I’d play this prop up to 35+, which is 5-1 in his last 6 games.

Leg #2:

Leg 2: Kyler Murray 1+ Interception

New England ranks #4 defending the pass (as measured by Football Outsiders DVOA) and are intercepting 3.1% of passes attempted vs. them, which ranks #3. Meanwhile, Murray’s Pass Attempts prop line is set at o/u 34.5 for tonight’s contest. Using simple math, we can estimate 35 Attempts x 3.1% Interception Rate = roughly 1.09 projected interceptions tonight. It’s obviously more complicated than that, but the simple math checks out. Taking it one step further, according to PFF, Murray’s Turnover Worthy Throw (TWT) rate this season is 3.8%, which exceeds the Pats’ 3.1% interception rate. It’s also the highest TWT mark of his career to date. Last but not least, I’m intrigued by the idea the Patriots are known to disguise their coverages well, while Murray’s film study skills are rumored to be questionable at best. In one career matchup vs. Coach Belichick’s defense, Murray was intercepted once and limited to 170 pass yards on 34 attempts.

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Leg #3:

Leg 3: Rhamondre Stevenson 4+ Receptions

He let us down last week but to be fair, it wasn’t really Rhamondre’s fault. The Patriots’ early-downs play calling was questionable at best, which made it difficult for the team to sustain drives. With that said, when Stevenson did get the ball, here’s what happened…

Looking ahead to tonight, Damien Harris is officially doubtful to play (again) and assuming he’s out, I expect a much heavier dose of #38 in hopefully more favorable game script (Pats are slight moneyline favorites). If Draftkings let us bet Rushing AND Receiving yards (i.e. the combo) in SGPs, I’d be backing him for 75+. Unfortunately they don’t, which led me to pivot to the low hanging fruit, which I feel is Rhamondre to record 4+ Receptions tonight. The Cardinals defense ranks in the Bottom 3 defending the pass vs. Running Backs this season (as measured by Football Outsiders’ DVOA). 5 of their last 6 opponents recorded 5+ receptions at the RB position. Tonight, we only need 4+, a number Stevenson’s cashing at an 80% clip in his last 10.

Note: If your book doesn’t offer receptions in SGP, I’d pivot to 20+ Receiving Yards at a similar price.

Leg #4:

Leg 4: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD

Arizona has now surrendered at least one touchdown to opposing Running Backs in 75% of their games this season. Rhamondre should undoubtedly be that guy tonight with Harris still sidelined. Stevenson’s accumulated 5 touchdowns in 5 games without Harris since 2021 but didn’t score last week. That was in a much tougher matchup vs. a stingy Bills defense. Tonight, I’m buying the dip on that trend in a much softer matchup.

The Slip:

I got +400 odds for the parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half normal bet size) to win 2 units. As a gentle reminder — Parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy. Please bet responsibly if tailing and best of luck!

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