FastMoneyLabs is making sure we're going into the NFL Divisional Round well prepared. He's broken down some key trends from Divisional Rounds past, applied them to current, and given us a handful of his favorite picks - check it out below!
$FML's NFL Divisional Weekend Preview & Picks - 1/20
Key Trends to Know: Divisional Weekend (since 2008)
Divisional Weekend Favorites tend to win outright… but fail to cover:
- Favorites are 39-21 (65.0%) straight up (SU) since 2008
- But just 26-31 (45.6%) against-the-spread (ATS)
This effect was most pronounced when the spread was between 6 and 9.5:
- Favorites were 19-7 (73.1%) SU
- But just 10-16 (38.5%) ATS
Games with 5.5 or tighter spreads had more balanced outcomes:
- Favorites were 13-11 (54.2%) SU
- 10-11 (47.6%) ATS
The OVER is 33-27 (55.0%) on Divisional Weekend since 2008, but the splits are mixed:
- 13-11 (54.2%) when the spread was 5.5 or tighter
- 13-13 (50.0%) when the spread was 6 to 9.5
- 7-3 (70.0%) when the spread was 9 or wider
Trends Applied to this Weekend
Most likely moneyline upsets, based on trends: Cowboys and Bengals
- Slight Underdogs (5.5 points or shorter) won 45.8% of the time since 2008
- 45.8% historical win rate = +9% edge or better at current market prices:
- Cowboys +172 ML = implied win rate 36.8%
- Bengals +198 ML = implied win rate 33.6%
Most likely ATS winners: Giants and Jaguars
- Moderate Underdogs (6 to 9.5 point spread) are 16-10 (61.5%) ATS since 2008
- Giants are the best ATS team in NFL this season (14-4, 77.8% including playoffs)
- Jags are 5-1 ATS since Week 14 (tied with Giants and 49ers for #1)
Less value on Game Totals
- Backing the ‘Over’ has been profitable when the spread was 10-points or wider
- However, this weekend’s spreads are all 9-points or tighter
- O/U results have been mixed with tighter spreads
Jaguars at Chiefs
- Spread has largely held steady (KC -8.5) with a slight tug towards KC at certain books
- Game Total rose sharply by 2.5 points (50.5 ➡️ 53) since the open
Giants at Eagles
- Spread holding steady at 7.5 on what appears to be balanced, 2-way action
- Game Total rose modestly by 1.5 points (46.5 ➡️ 48)
Bengals at Bills
- Roughly 67% of bets are hitting Bengals spread, but oddsmakers moved the line 2 full points towards Buffalo (3.5 ➡️ 5.5)
- Majority of bets and money hit the Over, leading oddsmakers to bump the Game Total by a tick (48.5 ➡️ 49)
Cowboys at 49ers
- Roughly 60% of bets are hitting 49ers spread, but the line drifted 0.5 to 1 point towards Dallas (4.5 ➡️ 3.5/4)
- Public LOVES the Over (80%+ bets), but Pros favor the Under (80%+ of money); game total appears to be holding steady at o/u 46
$FML’s Divisional Weekend Picks
All things considered, here’s where I landed!
Note: I bet to win 1 unit / each
- Jaguars +17.5 x Over 46.5 Teaser (+100 Draftkings): Backing the ATS trends cited above plus market signals that indicate this will be a shootout!
- Giants +7.5 (-110 Widely Available): Best ATS team in the league vs. divisional opponent? Give me those points! If you’re feelin’ risky: sprinkle some lunch money on Giants ML, too. I noticed Round 2 Underdogs are 4-2 (67%) SU vs. divisional opponents since 2008.
- Josh Allen & Joe Burrow each 250+ Pass Yards AND 2+ Pass TDs (+325 FanDuel): I lean Bills to win and the Over but prefer this player prop parlay at +325! Both sides will need to lean on their Quarterbacks, and I want action on it!
- Cowboys ML (+172 FanDuel): Riding the trends cited above (short underdogs win 45% of the time in Round 2) and following market signals that indicate Dallas can pull this off!
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