$FML’s NFL Sunday +493 Parlay - 11/6

We’re coming off an NFL Sunday sweep…

What are the chances we can do it again? Only one way to find out. See who I’m rolling with in Week 9...

157 scrimmage yards on Sunday but no scores?! He had my curiosity.

7 touchdowns in his last 3 games vs. the Lions?! Now he has my attention. 

Once known as a scoring machine, the ghost of Aaron Jones has just 4 touchdowns this season. I’m willing to bet #33 is hungry to get back to his usual double-digit pace, and it needs to start here.

Detroit’s getting shredded for the 2nd most touchdowns (1.57), 4th most yards per carry (5.24) and 3rd most rushing yards per game (122.86) by running backs this season. Imagine the possibilities for Jones in a must-win game.

If you’re feelin’ risky, consider also sprinkling separately on bet he’ll score 2+ TDs at best available odds (I got +375 via Barstool Sportsbook, risked 0.5 units and will track as an official $FML play assuming readers can get this price).

Pick: Aaron Jones 50+ Rushing Yards & 1+ TD (-120) vs. Detroit

The Bucs have now dropped 5 of their last 6 games and are desperate for a home victory here. To maximize win probability — they need to attack through the air. The Rams rank #4 in stopping the Run vs. just 19th defending the Pass in Football Outsiders’ DVOA tables. The Bucs are also struggling to run the ball right now.

Brady shredded LA for 329+ pass yards twice last year. This year’s Rams secondary is even more exploitable. Brady also cleared this 270.5 line in 5 of his last 6 games.

This line varies widely across books, but FanDuel’s still hanging 270.5 as I type this sentence. I locked it in for Leg 3 of our parlay and endorse at any number up to 280.5.

Note: If you can get the 270.5 line, I also recommend taking this prop straight to win 1 unit, commensurate with the value I’m seeing in the number. If you can’t get 270.5, then I’d either hold off on the straight bet or lower your bet size to 0.5 units. In either case, I like Brady for 281+ pass yards in our parlay.

Pick: Tom Brady over 270.5 Pass Yards (-114) vs. Rams

Betting #87 to find paydirt is 11-6 (65%) in his last 17 regular season primetime games. This week, he gets a Titans defense that ranks Bottom-11 defending Tight Ends and are allowing the 6th most touchdowns per game to the position. Kelce also scored in 10 of his last 12 (83%) games overall including playoffs. I’d need a really good reason to exclude Kelce TD from our parlay, and I’m not seeing it.

Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer (-140) vs. Titans

I got +493 odds for parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units to win 2.47u.

I also recommend a straight wager on Leg 2 (Brady o270.5 passing) to win 1 unit. If you’re feelin’ risky, consider also sprinkling 0.5 units on Aaron Jones to score 2+ TDs at +375 via Barstool Sportsbook. I personally did and will track this as an official $FML play.

As a friendly reminder… Parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy. Bet responsibly if tailing and good luck!