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$FML’s NFL Sunday +550 Parlay - 10/9

$FML’s NFL Sunday Parlay (+550)

Really diggin’ these three spots for Sunday and decided to lock them in for my official parlay. I sprinkled 0.25 units on the lay at Draftkings Sportsbook (+550) and risked a unit on each leg with straight bets at best available odds, which may vary from Draftkings in certain cases.

Leg #1 - James Robinson (JAX) Anytime Touchdown (+111) vs. Houston

Best odds Caesars Sportsbook

The new and improved Jags are climbing Power Ranking tables at a fast clip, and it’s fascinating when compared to preseason rankings. Football Outsiders DVOA have them as the #12 Offense right now (up 13 spots from #25 pre-season ranking) and #3 Defense (up 16 spots from #22 pre-season).

This week's opponent, the Houston Texans, are on the opposite end of that spectrum. They're underperforming pre-season rankings on both sides of the ball. They’ve been most vulnerable in run defense, as they’re allowing 141 rush yards per game to RBs (most), 5.04 yards per carry (8th most) and 1.5 touchdowns per game (2nd most).

Last week, they allowed Chargers' RB Austin Ekeler (who hadn't scored in Weeks 1-3) to score 3 touchdowns in a single game vs. them. The task gets tougher vs. our guy James Robinson, whose already scored 4 touchdowns this season. I'm honestly shocked this prop is still plus money right now at Caesars (+111) and Draftkings (+100). Absolutely love this spot for JR to score a tuddy (or two).

caesars

Leg #2 - Matt Gay (LAR) over 1.5 Field Goals (-115) vs. Dallas

Best odds Draftkings or MGM

There’s a lot to like in this angle vs. a Dallas defense that’s been tough to convert touchdowns against inside the 20-yard line. Their strength in that area of the field really pulls through in Football Outsiders' Red Zone Defense rankings, where the Cowboys rank #3 out of 32.

The natural offset to a strong red zone ranking is in the Field Goals category, where Dallas is forcing 3.3 Field Goal Attempts (FGA) per game (4th most). Taken together, these concepts make the Cowboys defense an ideal target for Field Goal props in the right matchups.

Enter the Rams, whose offense is averaging 3.3 red zone trips per game, 14th most, but only converting 46.15% into Touchdowns, 7th fewest, and I see a prime opportunity to back the tried and true Matt Gay for 2+ Field Goals on home turf.

This prop bet was 9-1 in Rams home games last season (regular season + playoffs) but is yet to win in two tries this year at SoFi Stadium. Given the historically high hit rate and plus matchup, I view Week 5 as the perfect time to buy the dip at a reasonable price.

If you're feelin’ risky, I also like Cowboys Kicker Brett Maher to kick 2+ FGs, and MGM is offering a prop on both teams to score 2+ FGs at +225 odds right now. I didn’t personally bet it yet, but it’s intriguing.

mgm

Leg #3 - Philadelphia Eagles 1st Half Team Total over 13.5 (-120) vs. Cardinals

Best odds FanDuel

Only one undefeated team remains, and it's these Eagles. I hate to admit this as a Giants fan but damnit, they've earned it.

Philly's dominance has really pulled through in the 1st Half of games, where they've outscored opponents by an incredible +57 point margin through 4 weeks.

It’s a small sample, but the results appear sustainable to an extent, since they’re backed by elite performance on both sides of the ball. So far, they rank #1 in 1st half defense efficiency (as measured by EPA per play), and #4 in offense efficiency. I'm anchoring heavily to those two stats for this pick since this week's opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, are literally on the opposite end of the 1st Half spectrum, as illustrated below:

stats

The chart isn’t super intuitive, but it shows the Cardinals rank dead last in 1st half offense efficiency and Bottom-3 in defensive efficiency. This continues a downward trend from last season, and the effects are really weighing on their box scores, as they've now trailed by 6 or more points at halftime in 7 of their last 8 games. They've also lost 7 straight home games.

If you can find Philly 1st half spread -3, I really like that angle and would consider backing it. However, since most books already moved the number to -3.5, I personally pivoted to the 1H Team Total route at the 13.5 line (widely available at time of writing), which they've smashed through in each of their first 4 games by scoring 24, 24, 24 and most recently 20 points in the first half. At this 13.5 number, all it takes is two touchdowns to cash the ticket.

fd

The Slip

I got +550 odds for the parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and sprinkled 0.25 units to win 1.38. I also placed straight bets on each leg at the books & odds listed in each section (I risked 1u/each).

Parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy, so please bet responsibly if riding with me & best of luck!

DK
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