Best odds Draftkings or MGM
There’s a lot to like in this angle vs. a Dallas defense that’s been tough to convert touchdowns against inside the 20-yard line. Their strength in that area of the field really pulls through in Football Outsiders' Red Zone Defense rankings, where the Cowboys rank #3 out of 32.
The natural offset to a strong red zone ranking is in the Field Goals category, where Dallas is forcing 3.3 Field Goal Attempts (FGA) per game (4th most). Taken together, these concepts make the Cowboys defense an ideal target for Field Goal props in the right matchups.
Enter the Rams, whose offense is averaging 3.3 red zone trips per game, 14th most, but only converting 46.15% into Touchdowns, 7th fewest, and I see a prime opportunity to back the tried and true Matt Gay for 2+ Field Goals on home turf.
This prop bet was 9-1 in Rams home games last season (regular season + playoffs) but is yet to win in two tries this year at SoFi Stadium. Given the historically high hit rate and plus matchup, I view Week 5 as the perfect time to buy the dip at a reasonable price.
If you're feelin’ risky, I also like Cowboys Kicker Brett Maher to kick 2+ FGs, and MGM is offering a prop on both teams to score 2+ FGs at +225 odds right now. I didn’t personally bet it yet, but it’s intriguing.