$FML's NFL Sunday Best Bet - 11/20

$FML has a pick for Sunday's NFL action!

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Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)

Feels like a Tight End prop kinda day, eh? And this one I’m about to highlight feels like a gem. It’s 0-4 since 2020 without Dak Prescott at QB but 16-4 (80%) with Dak. He’s averaging 51.8 receiving yards in these performances with a median value of 54.0 (+14.5 vs. today’s line). Since Dak returned Week 7, he’s averaging 59.0 yards on 6.7 targets and 5.7 catches. Yes – I’m referring to #86 Dalton Schultz.

Looking at market signals – I noticed his receptions line is set at o/u 3.5 for today’s contest with heavy juice (-160 or shorter) to the over. This implies it’s fairly likely #86 makes 4+ catches today. If you agree, then you should know that today’s opponent is surrendering 11.2 yards per catch to Tight Ends (10th most in NFL). Using simple math… 4 catches x 11.2 yards per catch puts Dalton Schultz closer to 44.8 yards today. Now imagine if he catches 5 or 6 passes as he’s been doing with Dak under center.

It was tempting to ladder this up to 50+ but for my best bet… I’ll take the low hanging fruit at FanDuel!

$FML's Best Bet

The Pick: Dalton Schultz over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Line and odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

$FML Best Bet

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Broncos

DEN

-110

+8.5

Ravens

BAL

-110

-8.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Browns

CLE

-110

-7

Texans

HOU

-110

+7

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Commanders

WAS

-110

-2.5

Giants

NYG

-110

+2.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Jaguars

JAX

-115

+1

Lions

DET

-105

-1

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Jets

NYJ

-110

+3

Vikings

MIN

-110

-3

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Packers

GB

-110

-3.5

Bears

CHI

-110

+3.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Steelers

PIT

-110

-1

Falcons

ATL

-110

+1

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Titans

TEN

-110

+4.5

Eagles

PHI

-110

-4.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Dolphins

MIA

-110

+4

49ers

SF

-110

-4

NFL | Sun 12/04, 9:05 PM
Seahawks

SEA

-110

-7

Rams

LAR

-110

+7

NFL | Sun 12/04, 9:05 PM

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