$FML's NFL Sunday Best Bet - 11/20

$FML has a pick for Sunday's NFL action!

Feels like a Tight End prop kinda day, eh? And this one I’m about to highlight feels like a gem. It’s 0-4 since 2020 without Dak Prescott at QB but 16-4 (80%) with Dak. He’s averaging 51.8 receiving yards in these performances with a median value of 54.0 (+14.5 vs. today’s line). Since Dak returned Week 7, he’s averaging 59.0 yards on 6.7 targets and 5.7 catches. Yes – I’m referring to #86 Dalton Schultz.

Looking at market signals – I noticed his receptions line is set at o/u 3.5 for today’s contest with heavy juice (-160 or shorter) to the over. This implies it’s fairly likely #86 makes 4+ catches today. If you agree, then you should know that today’s opponent is surrendering 11.2 yards per catch to Tight Ends (10th most in NFL). Using simple math… 4 catches x 11.2 yards per catch puts Dalton Schultz closer to 44.8 yards today. Now imagine if he catches 5 or 6 passes as he’s been doing with Dak under center.

It was tempting to ladder this up to 50+ but for my best bet… I’ll take the low hanging fruit at FanDuel!

The Pick: Dalton Schultz over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Line and odds via FanDuel Sportsbook