@MattyChucks' Chargers @ Chiefs TNF Preview, Picks & Same Game Parlay - 9/15

This game does have its fair share of injuries. Keenan Allen is OUT with a hamstring injury and that will sting on the offensive side of the ball, but they have enough weapons to be able to still produce and J.C. Jackson is questionable on the defensive side of things for the Chargers. He will be a game time decision and it will be a decent blow as well if he is out. For the Chiefs, everyone looks healthy besides some minor aches and pains. However, Harrison Butker is OUT with an ankle injury.

This may not seem important, but that changes the whole game script for the Chiefs. If it is 4th and short at the 33 yard line I am not sure that Andy Reid will turn to the practice squad kicker Matt Amendola for a 50 yard field goal in a divisional game early in the season. This may lead to more 4th down attempts from Mahomes & Co. which will either help run the score up, or they will pay the price and get stopped and turn the ball over without scoring.

This makes me like Matt Amendola over 2.5 extra points made (-125) on MGM. I think that the Chiefs do score 3 touchdowns in this game and if they do he should get this. I think there is value on this as well as Chiefs over 3.5 TD’s is the same price at -125. I won’t trust this guy with a 50 yarder, but I will take him to chip the extra points nice and easy.

This makes me like Matt Amendola over 2.5 extra points made (-125) on MGM. I think that the Chiefs do score 3 touchdowns in this game and if they do he should get this. I think there is value on this as well as Chiefs over 3.5 TD’s is the same price at -125. I won’t trust this guy with a 50 yarder, but I will take him to chip the extra points nice and easy.

The other player prop I like is Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions at -125 on MGM. This line is -145 or higher on most other books. Since Tyreek Hill is gone, Kelce is really the only guy Mahomes can trust when he needs to. This 4 point spread obviously indicates a close game and I think in these games Mahomes will turn to his safety net in Travis Kelce. In week 1 Kelce had 8 catches on 9 targets for 121 yards and a TD. He has also had 10,7,9 catches vs the Chargers since 2020 which was Herbert’s rookie season. I think he will be the go to guy in every aspect of the game and if I am right about them going for it on 4th down more, it opens up more opportunities for the big man.

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