@MattyChucks' NFL Thursday Night Football Pick - 9/6

The defending Super Bowl Champions take on this year's Super Bowl favorites in the first game of the season. This should be a great game all around and a very competitive one to say the least. The Bills were 11-6 last season and the Rams were 12-5 and both teams arguably got better. The Rams should start the season hungry to defend their Super Bowl reign, while the Bills are motivated and ready to go since their heartbreaking overtime loss to the Chiefs in last year’s playoffs.This game may be too close to call as the Bills are a small road favorite with a -2.5 spread and a -135 price on the moneyline, while the Rams are +2.5 on the spread and +110 on the moneyline.

There are some value plays on props in this game and that is where we are going to target. Contrary to popular belief, kickers are people too and they can honestly make you tons of money. Matt Gay was one of the most consistent kickers in the league last season with a 94.1 FG% which was ranked 2nd in the entire NFL behind the one and only Justin Tucker. He missed 1 FG in the 40’s and 1 in the 50’s in terms of yardage. The bulk of his field goals were actually taken in the 30-39 yards range where he went a perfect 15/15.

SoFi stadium also has its perks. It is considered a dome even though it has openings on the side. Either way, the way the stadium is built where it doesn't have tons of wind, which is obviously great for kickers. At home he was 17/18 on field goal attempts with a 94.4% FG made rate. He was also a perfect 3/3 in 50+ yard FG attempts at home. It is safe to say that home field advantage is pretty big for the Rams kicker.

To add on to the Rams kicker’s great 2021 campaign, he was a perfect 6/6 in the 4th quarter during 7 points or less games. This means when the pressure is on late, he delivers. In the last 2 minutes of the half and the game he was also a perfect 9/9. This opening game has a spread of 2.5 which means Vegas thinks this will be a very close game. This is perfect for us as Matt Gay thrives in these scenarios especially at home. He was 7-1 to over 1.5 field goals made at home last season and I don’t think it changes much here. The first game of the season can be a tricky one as some Red Zone offenses won't be as sharp and they may have to settle for more field goals instead of touchdowns.

The Bills defense is also one of the best in the league, so the Rams are going to have to take whatever points they can get. If that means settling for field goals I think they will play it safe. I am going to play Matt Gay over 1.5 field goals made at +100 over on Draftkings Sportsbook. FlashPicks contributor @FastMoneyLabs is on Matt Gay’s total points over 6.5 as well which is a great sign!

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