@MattyChucks' NFL Week 3: Dog of the Week

Thursday Night Football is here!

We have a super exciting matchup between the Steelers & the Browns!

Well, not really but it is still football!

Let’s cut to the chase (Claypool) ⬅️ -zinger okay back to the scheduled program.

We have a total of 38.5 on the full game which is very low. The spread is 4.5 points and it is a divisional game. Off the bat I am going to lean the team with the points in a primetime divisional game with a low total. The Steelers are 1-1 this season after a huge week 1 victory against the Bengals and a loss last week at home to New England. The Browns had the same pattern winning an emotional Week 1 game vs. Baker Mayfield and the Panthers, but then losing to the Jets in heartbreaking fashion.

The Steelers are without T.J. Watt, which is huge defensively but they have mostly everyone healthy. The Browns are without Jadeveon Clowney and possibly Myles Garrett. This would make their pass rush even worse and with an already poor pass defense to start the season it could let Pittsburgh actually find some openings if you trust Mitch Trubisky.

Through 2 weeks, the Browns have had their way running the ball vs the Panthers and Jets. Last week Nick Chubb had 17 carries for 87 yards and 3 TD’s while Kareem Hunt had 13 carries for 58 yards. That is 30 designed runs for the Browns and I know it is because they had the lead for most of the game, but that is still a lot. In week 1 Nick Chubb had 22 carries for 141 yards while Kareem Hunt had 11 carries for 46 yards. The main question for this game on the Steelers defensive side will be “Can they stop the run?”. Honestly it is tough to guess, but even if they do run most of their plays it could mean for a low scoring game with long possessions.

If you take a look at last season the Steelers beat the Browns 15-10 where Nick Chubb had 16 carries for 61 yards and 0 TD’s. In the 2nd game that they played the Steelers won 26-14. Nick Chubb again was stabilized. Nick Chubb will always get his 50-80 yards a game, but this could end up being a bet on Mike Tomlin focusing on that rush defense without T.J. Watt and he could force Jacoby Brissett to try and beat them by throwing the ball.

Cleveland has been middle of the pack in rush defense via DVOA sitting at 18th in the league and 9th in the league in pass defense via DVOA. The game script defensively should be to focus on stopping the run and I think that is where the focus will be. The Browns are 24th in pass defense and 20th in rush defense via DVOA as well. I really think the Steelers can hang with the Browns here and a 5 point cushion on primetime in a low total is very convincing.

I like the Steelers to keep it close in this matchup and the NFL desperately needs a close game on primetime because every game has been a blowout.

Take Mike Tomlin and the Steelers cause they got that dog in them.