We have the 3-2 Ravens on the road vs. the 4-1 New York Giants. The Giants are having an outstanding season so far and have really over achieved through 5 weeks. The Ravens on the other hand are no joke as well, as Lamar Jackson is a top MVP Candidate and they are on top of the AFC North.
MattyChucks' Ravens @ Giants Pick - 10/14
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) @ New York Giants (4-1)
Let’s talk about the Ravens. They could easily be 5-0 if they didn’t allow the Dolphins and Bills to pull off 4th quarter comebacks. The Ravens have the 2nd best passing offense via DVOA and the 13th best rushing offense. Their problem is the defensive side of the ball. They have the 10th best passing defense via DVOA, but the 26th best rush defense. That is going to be a problem with Saquon Barkley. The Giants have the 6th best rushing offense via DVOA and the 15th ranked pass offense. On the Giants defensive side are the issues. They are 24th in pass defense and 21st in rush defense via DVOA.
We basically have the question of do the Giants run all over the Ravens? Or do the Ravens just dominate offensively vs. New York?
The problem with the Giants rushing offense is that they played one defense in the top half of the league in rush defense and that was the Titans in week 1. Also if Lamar has a great 1st half and the Giants are forced to throw the ball, I am not sure that they can pull it off. The Ravens have also played 3 teams ranked in the top 10 in defensive DVOA and have done very well.
I think this is a sell high spot on the Giants as I think if they aren’t 4-1 this line is more of a 6.5 or 7 point spread.
Take Lamar Jackson & Co. to take care of business early and hold on to the lead and take Saquon out of the game.