MCbets' +22433 Monday Night Football SGP - 10/10

That price looks outrageous. The play doesn't. Especially for these two teams who should be airing it out tonight.

(I know I said the same thing last night, but this is different.)

When making these "near lock" parlays I like to start by looking at the line on the QB pass attempts and the total for the game.

The books are anticipating some points tonight with the QB lines at 37.5 for Carr,  36.5 for Mahomes and the Total sitting at 51.5. Do I hear 27-24 Chiefs anyone?? The under hooks all the over bettors, but the Raiders cover the +7. Hm I just locked that in at +5000. Imagine if it hit and I didnt play a couple bucks? Unforgivable.

Pat Mahomes o279.5 Passing Yards

I like Mahomes to clear his line of 279.5 tonight. The Raiders have allowed Herbert to go for 279, Murray 277, Tannehill 264 and Wilson 237. Andy Reid and Mahomes can do those numbers by the 3Q.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling o43.5 Rec Yards + 1TD

One of his targets who has been pretty consistent this year is Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Oh and it happens to be his birthday today. Narrative street. He has hit this line of 43.5 in 3 of 4 games so far including a season high 63 yards last week. Mahomes finds him in the end zone for a birthday present as well.

Turning to THE RAIDAZZZZ (Chris Berman voice) I stayed away from Carr's passing yards only because when I play him in these obvious OVER situations, he has a terrible game. Youre welcome. BUT, we'll be looking at his receivers, and a running back.

Josh Jacobs o18.5 Rec Yards

Tailing my boys Matty Chucks and Capper Penguin with Josh Jacobs o18.5 Rec yards. Check out their article if you haven't yet. Great spot. KC boasts the top run D in the league so LV will look to get their playmaker the ball in space, not just running into the back of their O-Line.

Davante Adams 100+ Rec Yards + 1TD

Is Davante Adams better than Mike Williams? Yes. Is he better than Mike Evans? I say Yes, but up for debate. The reason for the pop quiz is that Williams went for 113 and a score and Evans went for 103 and 2 scores. We already know that Adams his Carr's fav target so I think he has a similar line to those guys and clears 100 and a TD.

Darren Waller o50.5 Rec Yards + 1TD

Darren Waller where have you been? He's back tonight going for over his line and will find the end zone. A big factor in this is the return of Hunter Renfrow. Not the guy who plays for the Brewers. Two different guys. The KC D has to respect his route running ability on short routes so look for Waller to be freed up over the middle and into the 2nd level. 

I also like, as a straight lean Carr o1.5 TDs so I like that this play feeds into that narrative. The Chiefs have allowed the most passing TDs this year and no matter which way you see this one going Carr is going to have to throw TDs. If they lead early it will be on Carr and if they need to play catch up in the 4th, he'll be throwing for scores. 

Dont forget, 27-24 KC, Raiders +7 (Feel free to laugh and not tail that, I just had to get it in writing, you know just in case...FOMO, YOLO)