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MCbets' TNF Plus Money Props: Dolphins @ Bengals - 9/29


Plus money straight props are fun, albeit risky. No juice to drink, just the shot to double up your unit. You hang on every snap, praying our guy gets the ball, always looking to take the books in the first half for that sweat free cash. Well today were going to outline two spots where that can happen. Remember, theyre plus money for a reason but we like to take out"underdog" shots when we can. 

Pick #1: Joe Mixon Receptions

He's started the year catching 7, 3 and 3 balls and was a recipient of 7 targets last week. Last season he ended the year clearing this number in 5/6 games and as this season continues were looking for the Bengals to mimic more of the team that won the AFC, not the one that lost their first two. A steady whooping of the Jets saw the Bengals offense get right, with Burrow throwing for 275 yards. 

Mixon's Rec yards line is set at 20.5 which seems low considering the Dolphins just gave up 78 yards on 9 catches to Devin Singletary and the high powered Bills. Over his L10 when he has gone over 20.5 (his lowest over was 26) he caught 4 balls in 5 of them. There will be plenty of air yards to go around for all the Bengals pass catchers as the Dolphins have given up 400 to Allen, 318 to Lamar, and 213 to Mac freakin' Jones. Burrow and Mixon have good rapport and I expect him to clear both of these numbers. A week after seeing 7 targets vs a team that gives up passing yards, theres no reason to not go back to the well. 

MCbets' Plus Money Pick #1

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Joe Mixon Over 3.5 Receptions @ +126

Pick #2: Mike Gesecki Receptions

This doesnt look as nice at face value as Gesicki's snap count and target share has gone down obvioulsy with the addition of Tyreek Hill. But looking a little deeper this may be the game he re-emerges. In three games Gesicki has cleared this line once. Week two he hauled in 4 passes. I just cant let that deter me for a guy who cleared this number 14 times last season playing with the same QB. Thursday night, short week, Tua Banged up, the Fins can very well look to a more conservative approach with quick passes over the middle (to Gesicki) to limit the amount of hits he can take. Combine that with the Bengals vs the TE this year. Mitch Trubisky attempted 38 passes in Week 1, finding his TE's 7 times, specifically Friermuth 5 of those. Last week vs the Jets Joe Flacco passed 53 times (!!!) and found Ty Conklin 8. All we need is 3 from Big Mike.

MCbets' Plus Money Pick #2

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Mike Gesecki over 2.5 Receptions @ +136


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