@NicLarsonGB's Commanders @ Bears Pick - 10/12

When looking for value Thursday night for a game that is underwhelming on paper, look no further than Curtis Samuel’s receptions. Samuel has emerged as Carson Wentz’s security blanket and go to wide receiver. He leads the Commanders in targets with 45 (next closest McLaurin 33) and receptions 32 (next closest McLaurin 19). Samuel has hit the o4.5 in four of the five games this season, his only miss being one shy at Dallas. While the Bears come in as one of the top pass defenses in the league, this is a little misleading. Week one they played in a monsoon vs the 49ers. Week two the Packers ran all over them. Week three was vs a winless Texans team. Week four Daniel Jones got hurt, and the Giants were down to their backup QB throwing the ball only 16 times. Last week, when they actually faced a potent passing offense, Justin Jefferson torched them for 12 catches and 154 yards. While Wentz and the Commanders may not have the same fire power as the Vikings, he does rank in the top five for passing yards and attempts this season. Coming into the game as the third most sacked quarterback, I envision a bunch of quick hitters and screens to Samuel to keep the Bears pass rush off of Wentz Thursday night. Look for Samuel to continue his hot start to the season and eclipse the line of 4.5.