The Philadelphia Eagles (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) put their undefeated record on the line Thursday night as they visit the Houston Texans (1-5-1 SU, 3-4 ATS). As the league’s lone unbeaten team, the Eagles carry the best record into this matchup against the team with the worst record- not exactly a Super Bowl preview. However, it is football, and there is a chance for us to make money here- I just can’t lay two full touchdowns on the road in a league where games are often close and unpredictable. Does that mean I want the Texans plus the points? No, no it does not. The Texans last week hosted the Titans, as Malik Willis made his first NFL start, and ran an offense comparable to a service academy, throwing just 10 times for a total of 55 yards. The Texans knew what was coming (runs, and lots of them) and still were helpless to stop the Titans ground attack. The Titans piled up 315 yards rushing , at 7 yards a carry, and now in comes an offense that’s even more explosive with much more talent at receiver, a better offensive line and a far superior quarterback. Houston, we have a problem.
My only concern with laying this kind of number is the backdoor cover potential, as the Eagles average 21 points per first half so far this year, they do have a habit of taking their foot off the gas in the second halves. The Texans are playing in primetime, at home, against an undefeated team and will likely bring their best effort in this spot. Is it enough to hang around? Probably not.. but I’ve seen enough Eagles games to know their method of operation, get a big lead at halftime, and run the ball in the 2nd half to drain the clock- they don’t go for style points. The Eagles are a perfect 7-0 ATS in the first half this season, and i expect something like a 17-3 halftime score, with the Eagles calling off the dogs after they establish a lead. Let’s go Eagles -7.5 for the first half, and not be subjected to watching too much of this mismatch.
