SUPER BOWL LVIII San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction and betting odds

Need-to-know info

• Who: San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs
• When: Sunday, Feb 11th at 6:30pm ET
• Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas NV

49ers: favorites bidding for six

Five Super Bowl victories make the San Francisco 49ers one of the most successful franchises in the history of the NFL. But four of those wins came in the eighties, and the most recent in 1994. After a three-decade drought, that long wait could be coming to an end.

The new NFC champions have been the bookmakers’ favorites for much of the season, catching the eye with a 12-5 record. A three-game skid in midseason and a final-week loss without the starters accounts for the majority of that, and they head into the Super Bowl favored by two points.

San Francisco has looked shaky in the Playoffs, doing it the hard way with comeback wins against the Packers and the Lions. They’ll need to be quicker out the blocks on Sunday if they want to make it six.

Chiefs: the team that just won’t quit

Here they come again. An up and down season for the Chiefs, but they’ve made it back to their fourth Super Bowl in five years. Despite not looking like their usual selves, Kansas City still went 11-6 and wrapped up their eight straight AFC West title.

As third seeds, Chiefs had to go on the road in the Playoffs – something we’ve rarely seen in recent years – but that wasn’t a problem in impressive takedowns of Buffalo and Baltimore. A dogged defense and a sprinkling of Mahomes magic have been at the heart of it, saving their best performances for the postseason.

More of the same in Vegas, and we could be seeing a similar result to this one…

Chiefs 31-20 49ers

Kansas City ended their 50-year Super Bowl drought in style, trailing 20-10 ahead of the fourth quarter before a final flourish that took the game away from the shell-shocked 49ers.

Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Damien Williams have all moved on from the Chiefs’ offense since pouring it on that night in Miami. The 49ers no longer have Jimmy Garoppolo under center, while they’ve added the ultimate weapon in Christan McCaffrey.

A lot has changed in the four years since – but not the head coaches. Can Kyle Shanahan turn the tables on Andy Reid and avenge defeat in this Super Bowl rematch?

Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes vs Brock Purdy. A first-round pick with two Super Bowl rings vs Mr Irrelevant. A man who makes more dollars in one game than his opposite number does in a season.

Purdy most definitely is relevant though – it’s those statistics which are not. The 49ers QB has split opinions this year but no one can argue with his clutch performances in the Playoffs. The second-year star stepped up when it mattered to deliver comeback wins against the Packers and the Lions. Game changer? Seems so.

But Patrick Mahomes wins this battle because, well, he’s Patrick Mahomes. A 14-3 record in the Playoffs, two NFL MVPs, two Super Bowl MVPs, two Lombardis. A future first-ballot Hall of Famer. Man, he should probably be in Canton already. But forget all those honors. Just sit back and watch him in action. There’s nothing quite like it.

Winner: Chiefs

Hard to split ‘em. 49ers star Nick Bosa flagged up this week that the Chiefs do a lot of holding – he’s right. Jawaan Taylor leads the league in penalties, Donovan Smith has given up plenty too. And you don’t want to be giving up easy yards in the Super Bowl. Left Guard Joe Thuney is a doubt with a pectoral injury and will be a big miss if he doesn’t go.

Kansas City’s offensive line is pretty middle of the road but that goes for the 49ers too. However they do have veteran tackle Trent Williams – selected to his 11th Pro Bowl this year – fighting in the trenches. Too close to call.

Winner: Tie

The Chiefs can call upon RB duo Isaiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to pound the rock, with the former impressing this year with 935 yards and nine touchdowns. But add the pair’s stats together and they still can’t match the levels of Christian McCaffrey. With 1,459 rushing yards, 564 more through the air and 21 touchdowns, the CMC trade already looks like the deal of the century. It’ll look even better if San Francisco emerges victorious in Vegas.

Winner: 49ers

The last time the Chiefs missed the Super Bowl, Snoop was among the half-time performers. And Kansas City’s receiving corps have been dropping it like it’s hot all year with a league-high 44 drops. Rashee Rice, however, is not one of those guys. The reliable rookie has stepped up ahead of his more experienced teammates to become Mahomes’ most dynamic option, recording 938 yards along with seven touchdowns.

On the opposite side of the coin, the 49ers have a talent pool that includes the do-it-all Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk – the latter making it back-to-back 1,000+ yard seasons with 1,342 yards in 2023. Samuel has missed some time this year but is a huge threat on the ground and in the air. When fit and firing, he takes this 49ers offense to another dimension.

Winner: 49ers

A battle of the elite. Travis Kelce and George Kittle were voted to the Pro Bowl as starting Tight Ends in their respective conferences, but they’ll be giving the annual event a miss this year…

Kelce set a new record last week for the most postseason receptions in history, his 156 catches taking him past Jerry Rice. Not bad company to be in. He might not be able to avoid the media spotlight right now, but escaping defensive coverage? No problem.

Kittle is perhaps the more explosive of the pair, more likely to pull off a huge play downfield – and is the better blocker. But Kelce’s consistency and reliability is unmatched. He’s the man for that third-down grab, he’s Mahomes’ go-to target, he’s our winner.

Winner: Chiefs. Just.

When you think of the Chiefs, you think offense. But not this year. Simply put, this is one of the league’s most underrated units. First in sack percentage, second in points allowed, third in TDs allowed. The defense under Steve Spagnuolo was at its very best to restrict the Ravens in the Championship game.

The 49ers’ D, on the other hand, has gone backwards during the year. Experience and know-how aplenty, but they were given a scare by Green Bay before the Lions ran all over them last weekend. Must. Do. Better.

Winner: Chiefs

Harrison Butker has been perfect in the Playoffs for the Chiefs with 6/6 on FGs and 5/5 on PATs. Rookie kicker Jake Moody has been far less successful, missing kicks in both postseason games. Can he handle the pressure on the biggest stage of them all?

Two good punters. Two returners who can’t be separated. This one falls the way of the stronger place kicker. And that’s Butker.

Winner: Chiefs

Andy Reid is the only coach to win 100+ games with two teams. He’ll go down as one of the best ever to do it, with his West Coast offense and expert game plans becoming the thing of legend. He surrounds himself with the very best too – going that extra mile to get even the smallest of advantages. Every inch counts in football.

Then you have Kyle Shanahan, recognized as one of the best offensive minds in the game. Taking his brother Mike’s Shanahan-style offense and making it his own, the 49ers use their skill players unpredictably – and devastatingly. This could be a classic.

Winner: Tie, of course

Kansas City Chiefs to repeat. We picked the Bills, we picked the Ravens, we’re not going against the Champs again. If the 49ers follow the same route as the previous two weeks, they’re gonna need to come back and win against a stubborn defense and a genius Quarterback. That might be one step too far, even for Brock Purdy.

Odds and spreads correct as of 02/05/2024

Odds and spreads correct as of 02/05/2024

Odds and spreads correct as of 02/05/2024

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