$FML's +146 NHL Friday Best Bet - 3/10

The Panthers can smell a playoff spot, and to secure it: they need to hunt down the Penguins. As it stands, Florida  trails Pittsburgh by 4 standings points with 17 games to play. A win vs. Chicago tonight would close the gap by 2 points. While it’s tempting to gamble on the game result, I prefer the pricing in the shots on goal market here. Florida eclipsed the 40+ shots mark in 8 of their last 10 home games — a wildly impressive feat. Team captain Aleksander Barkov has been a force in this market lately, clearing the 3+ shots line in 8 of his last 10 at FLA Live Arena — averaging 3.6 (+1.1 vs. line) in that stretch. In his last 7 home games — he attempted 7 or more shots 6x. At that rate, he could literally miss 50% of his shot attempts and still cash this ticket for us. It’s true: the Blackhawks absolutely love making me look foolish. Scared money don’t make money, though, and it’s a leap I’m willing to take at least one more time.

Note: if FanDuel lists an Alt Line for Barkov, I’ll likely play the 4+ prop too, if the price is right.

Andersson’s a smooth skating, shoot-first defenseman with elite hockey sense. Books don’t always list his shot prop, but when they do: I’m ecstatic about playing it — especially vs. the Ducks. They allow the most shots per game in NHL, and nearly 30% are to defensemen (3rd highest % in NHL). Andersson cleared the 2+ shots mark in 8 of his last 10 home games, averaging 2.5 in that stretch. Betting him to cash vs. the Ducks is 6-2 (75%) in the last 3 seasons. 

Note: If FanDuel offers an Alt Line later, I plan to back Andersson for 3+ shots, too (if the price is right). For now, I’ll take the low hanging fruit with a bet he’ll record 2+.

I got +146 odds for the 2-leg parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked a full unit! Odds dropped to +139 while I was typing the article. Still very playable and I’ll track the picks there.

I love this ticket, but parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy. We’re also admittedly chilly right now, so please bet (or fade) responsibly! Cheers and best of luck tonight!