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$FML's +197 Best Bet for NHL Tuesday - 2/14

Three straight $FML winners at -120, +321 & +181. Time for another heat check with this +197 Best Bet for Tuesday night's NHL action!

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Leg 1: Mike Hoffman (MTL) o2.5 Shots (-118) vs. CHI

Over in 5 straight, averaging 4.4 shots on goal (SOG) on 6.6 attempts in that stretch. Let that sink in. He’s attempting 6.6 shots per game right now. If the trend persists, he could literally miss 50%+ of his shots and still cash the ticket at this 2.5 SOG line.

Could it be a fluke? Perhaps, but I’m optimistic it’s not, since the trend corresponds with losing teammate / sniper Cole Caufield to long-term IR with a shoulder injury. This means more ice time for Hoffman (both in 5v5 and Power Play). Importantly, he’s taking more shots per minute when on the ice, too.

Icing on the cake: Tonight’s matchup is of the softer variety vs. a Blackhawks team that allows 33.5 SOG per game (7th most), and Hoffman’s team has home ice advantage. All good things!

Leg 2: Aaron Ekblad (FLA) o2.5 Shots (-164) vs. STL

They say a picture is worth 1,000 words. See Ekblad’s trend and tell me: how could we not back him with confidence tonight? (Screenshot via Props.Cash)

$FML Stats

Over in 9 of his last 10, averaging 4.4 SOG on 6.5 attempts in those contests. Oh, and the only miss? He played less than 2 minutes that night due to an injury. Excluding that, his average improves to 4.9 SOG per game on 7.2 attempts.

Taken together — similar to Hoffman — if this trend persists, he could literally miss 50%+ of his shots and still cash the ticket at this 2.5 line.

In more sobering news: The days of getting Ekblad 2.5 lines feel numbered. Last year, his typical prop line was o/u 3.5 before a set of injuries derailed it. Now he’s finally healthy and playing true to form. All that is to say: Let’s capitalize on the discount before books bump him back up to 3.5 for good.

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The Slip

I got +197 for the parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked a full unit to win 1.97U. I know we’re hot, but parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy. Please remember to bet responsibly if tailing! Cheers and best of luck out there tonight.

$FML Best Bet