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$FML's +181 Best Bet for NHL Monday - 2/13

$FML's been on a heater since he cashed that Friday Night Parlay - check out his Best Bet with two legs for Monday's NHL slate!

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Leg 1: Tyler Toffoli over 2.5 Shots (-150)

Calgary Flames vs. Ottawa Senators

#73 in Flames red is scorching hot right now. He’s lit the lamp 6x in his last 8 games, including a 2-goal performance this past Saturday. His 3+ Shot Prop is now 10-1 (91%) in his last 11 games and 9-2 (82%) in his last 11 on the road.

Digging a little deeper – I like how he’s exhibiting a steady, upward trend in shot attempts. In 3 games since All-Star Break: Toffoli’s attempted 24 shots (8.0 per game) and landed 12 on target (4.0 per game). Those numbers represent healthy cushions vs. what we need tonight (3+ on target) in a favorable matchup vs. a Senators team allowing 31.9 shots per game, on average (11th most).

For what it’s worth, I also value Toffoli’s ability to record shots in 5v5 situations. Some players depend on Power Plays for shots, but not him. Nearly 70% of Toffoli’s shots are coming in even-strength situations this season, which helps explain his ability to post consistent stats.

Last but not least: I like how the Senators give the 6th most Power Play Opportunities per game, and Toffoli plays a key role on Calgary’s 1st Power Play unit. In the event he fails to get 3+ SOG in 5v5, I like his chances to split the difference via Special Teams.

Leg 2: Roman Josi over 3.5 Shots (-145)

Nashville Predators vs. Arizona Coyotes

The Predators’ captain gets a mouthwatering matchup here vs. a team he LOVES to fill the stat sheet against. In Josi’s last 6 games vs. Arizona, he’s accumulated an incredible 32 shots (5.3 per game) and 11 points (1.8 per game). Betting him to snap 4+ shots on net was 5-1 (83%) in those contests.

Focusing on this year’s Coyotes: they allow the 8th most shots per game and 3rd most to Josi’s Defensemen position. In an earlier season matchup, Josi posted an insane stat line: 8 shots on goal, 1 goal and 1 assist.

Fast forward to now, and Nashville should be even more motivated to wreak havoc. Their veteran laced lineup is trying to make a playoff push and have won 6 of their last 8 games. This situation contrasts sharply against Arizona’s, given they’re a young club in full-tank mode. Tonight also marks the Yotes’ 3rd road game in 4 nights, whereas Nashville is well-rested and holds home-ice advantage.

I honestly love all Josi’s props tonight (especially him to record a Point, most likely via Assist), so feel free to pick your poison. For our official parlay, I’m taking the Shots!

The $FML Best Bet Slip

I got +181 odds for the 2-leg parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked a full unit to win 1.81u!

Gentle reminder: I absolutely love this ticket, but parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy. Please remember to bet responsibly if tailing! Cheers & good luck.

$FML Best Bet
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