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$FML's +512 Friday Night NHL Parlay - 3/24

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Leg 1: Jesper Bratt 1+ Point (-122) vs. Buffalo

Note: I also hit this with a straight bet to win 1 unit

Disrespectful price… Or a mistake? (this is -146 in one section of FanDuel but -122 in the 1+ points drop down) Either way… I’ll take it!

He was a point per game player earlier this season and is still capable, but his stats tapered off mid-season. It’s hard to say why, but the fact his lineup spot was constantly shifting might be to blame.

Fast forward to now, and I see signs his point per game pace is about to be revived thanks to a genius lineup adjustment. Since joining Nico Hischier and Timo Meier up on the Devils’ first line, Bratt’s recorded 4 points in 2 games. The trio is absolutely dominating puck possession and generating scoring chances — both obviously key to cashing points props.

Tonight’s game total is also relatively high (o/u 6.5 - 7) and the scoring outlook is bright in Buffalo. The Sabres allow the most goals per game at home (4.09), and the Devils can clinch a playoff spot with a win. They’re also the #1 team in NHL this season after a loss.

I considered Devils ML and Team Total angles, and both feel solid; however for our parlay… I prefer a bet that Bratt records a point @ -122 (bet down to -150).

Leg 2: Islanders 60-Minute ML (-170) vs. CBJ

News just broke that Columbus’ 2nd best player & #1 scorer, Patrik Laine, will miss 2-4 weeks; and that’s a problem for a team that doesn’t score many goals. The market moved swiftly, steaming Islanders ML down to -240 from -195. I’m following that trail and backing New York to win in 60 minutes with confidence for Leg 2!

85.4% of Columbus’ losses this season came in 60-minutes (6th most). Going to OT earns a standings point, and they frankly don’t want that tonight. They’re already dead last in the standings, and Overtime might hurt their chances (albeit marginally) at the #1 overall draft pick.

Meanwhile 86.5% of New York’s wins have been earned in 60 minutes this season (4th most). And they have every incentive to win in convincing fashion tonight.

The Islanders won each of the last 6 meetings, and 5 of the 6 wins came in regulation time.

Leg 3: Cale Makar 1+ Power Play Point (+112)

I’m low key bullish on the Underdogs in Denver tonight, but Special Teams will be their downfall!

Mentioned on Twitter the other day and it’s still true: Arizona surrenders the most Power Play Opportunities (PPO) per game (3.78) and allow the 3rd most Power Play Goals (PPG). This spells trouble vs. Colorado who rank #4 in Power Play efficiency.

The Avalanche are priced at -200 to score a Power Play goal tonight at Barstool Sportsbook, and Makar ranks #1 on the team in Power Play Points (PPP) per minute. He missed the last 2 games but has 6 PPP in his last 4 outings. It won’t hit every game, but I’ll roll the dice at +110!

The Slip:

I got +512 for the 3-leg parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half my normal bet size) to win 2.56 units!

I also hit Bratt to record a point @ -122 with a straight bet (to win 1 unit), since that’s my favorite of the 3.

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