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$FML's +524 Friday Night Night Parlay - 2/24

What has three legs, is on ice and is capable of paying 5.24x your initial wager?

$FML's Friday Night NHL Parlay, that's what - check it out below!

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Leg One: Carter Verhaeghe over 3.5 Shots (-110)

Florida Panthers vs. Buffalo Sabres

When you’re thirsty for a W, check schedule, see Panthers are playing, and it’s a home game:

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Needless to say – I was extremely happy to see Florida on the Friday Night slate! They’re posting an INSANE 38.5 shots per 60 minutes at FLA Live Arena this year. Mind-boggling context: the #2 ranked team in that category is Carolina at 35.5 (-7.8% below FLA). The visiting Sabres meanwhile allow the 9th most shots on the road (32.8/60 min), it’s their 3rd game in 4 nights and a back-to-back.

Looking at the injury report: 2 of Florida’s top shooters are officially OUT tonight (captain Aleksander Barkov and forward Sam Bennett), which makes Verhaeghe’s shot prop a no-brainer in my eyes. His 190 SOG rank #2 on the Panthers behind only Matthew Tkachuk. Betting him to eclipse the 3.5 line is 12-3 (80%) in his last 15 overall and 9-1 (90%) in his last 10 on home ice (average 4.1 per game).

It's worth noting Verhaeghe finished Under in 4 of his last 6 vs. Buffalo, but 3 of the 4 Unders were on the road. Now back Home with a shortened bench – I trust #23 to get over the hump!

Note: I also took this prop straight to win 1 unit! Official $FML play.

Leg Two: Ryan O’Reilly o0.5 Points (-110)

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Minnesota Wild

We’ve been fading St. Louis since they traded away their captain to Toronto. It’s been profitable (and fun), and tonight: I’m pulling that same string, but through a different loophole by backing the man they traded for a point.

The Toronto broadcast was quick to mention O’Reilly idolized the Leafs as a kid, and his career must feel revived right now. In 3 games since the trade, his stats support the sentiment. He’s accumulated 5 points – 4 of which came on Tuesday vs. Buffalo. He lit the house on fire that night with 3 Goals and an Assist, exhibiting next-level chemistry with his new linemates (John Tavares and Mitch Marner).

It won’t cash every time, but elite goal scorers paired with top-talent like Marner and Taveres should never be -110 to record a point, in my eyes. I don’t care who the opponent is. This prop feels badly mispriced, and I predict that within 2 weeks, it’ll drop to -150 or lower each time the Leafs take the ice. Let’s capitalize on the value while we can @ -110!

For what it’s worth, this isn’t the best matchup for scoring props on paper, but I like how the game total is tugging up towards 6.5 (from 6.0), the Leafs are favored, and O’Reilly has 10 points in his last 10 games vs. Minnesota (albeit while playing for his former team).

Note: I did not personally take this prop straight, since I feel it’s the riskiest leg. I love our chances to cash but don’t want too much exposure just in case this is a low-scoring affair.

Leg Three: Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 Shots (-140)

Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets

This matchup looks even matchup on paper (moneyline priced as a coin flip), but the intangibles favor Colorado and here’s why: Winnipeg spent the last week playing 4 games on the East Coast, whereas the Avalanche are fresh off 3-days rest. This makes me eager to target a Colorado prop, and I’m not overthinking my choice. I’m backing Mr. Consistent, Nathan MacKinnon, to get 5+ shots on target!

I know 5+ feels like a lot psychologically, but Nasty Nate’s been smashing this line with 6+ SOG in 5 consecutive contests. Looking at road splits, he cleared the 6+ mark in 8 of his last 10 away from home. Remember… Tonight, we only need 5+!

Looking at matchup: He’s averaging an insane 7.3 SOG per game vs. Winnipeg in the last 2 seasons. Betting him to cover 5+ is 9-2 (82%) H2H vs. the Jets since Feb. 2019.

Note: I did not personally take this prop straight (yet) but plan to hit the 6+ Alt Line at FanDuel when it drops (if the price is right, ideally +125 or better).

The Slip

I got +524 for the 3-leg parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e., half my normal bet size) to win 2.62u!

I also took the 1st Leg (Verhaeghe) straight to win 1 unit and plan to hit the MacKinnon 6+ Alt Line at FanDuel if it drops at +125 or better (bet size TBD, will depend on odds).

I love this ticket, but parlays are a high-risk / high-reward strategy! Please remember to bet responsibly if tailing! Cheers and good luck!

$FML Friday Night Parlay
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