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$FML's +687 Friday Night NHL Parlay - 3/3

What has three legs and is still on ice but is capable of paying 6.87x your initial wager?

$FML's +687 Friday Night NHL Parlay for March 3rd - let's ride!

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Leg 1: Connor McDavid (EDM) to Score (-120) vs. WPG

Scoring in the NHL is hard. Scoring twice in a game? Harder. Scoring twice in a game, 5x in a row?! Pure insanity. Since the National Hockey League formed in 1917 (105 years ago), it's only happened 6x, and McDavid officially joined that club on Wednesday. Tonight, he has a chance to tie a 100-year-old record held by Punch Broadbent (great friggin name, by the way). To make it happen -- he needs to score twice again; and to score twice, he needs to score at least once, right? #Math

Leg 2: Andrei Svechnikov (CAR) to Record an Assist (+125) vs. ARI

The Canes had literally ZERO power play opportunities last game, which is statistically rare and somewhat unlucky. Out of 1,962 total NHL games played this season, it's only happened 23x (1.2% probability).

I mention, since the law of averages suggests massive Power Play upside tonight vs. the team that gives opponents literally the most Power Play Opportunities per game (3.8). It's true: Carolina's Power Play efficiency is down lately (only 1 PPG in their last 13 PPO), but if they want to "get right" (which they do), is this not the perfect spot? That line of thinking led me to Svechnikov, who ranks 3rd on the Canes in Power Play points at a time when the #1 and 2 ranked players (Burns and Necas, 17 PPP/each) were each recently dropped to the 2nd unit.

If my Special Teams theory fails, I like Svechnikov’s chances to split the difference in even strength. He's got 8 points (6 assists) in his last 6 games, which corresponds with being bumped up to Carolina’s 1st forward line with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. In 17 games played together in 5v5 since last season, Svechnikov has 19 points -- of which, 17 (89%) were assists. Looking at this season only and ignoring lineups, 17 of his last 19 points (89%) overall were assists. He's arguably due for more goals soon, but from a pricing standpoint: I see better value in the assist at +125.

For a safer bet, consider backing Svechnikov to record a point instead (which includes goals + assists)

Leg 3: Jack Hughes (NJD) to Record an Assist (-110) vs. VGK

New Jersey scored 7x on Wednesday night, and Hughes didn’t record a point. He’s a team first guy, but the man must be starving to hit the scoresheet tonight. #86 hasn’t gone two straight games without a point since the 2nd week of the season (130 days ago). While it’s possible he’ll get it by scoring a goal (+105), I prefer the value in assist at a similar price (-110). He’s averaging 1.0 per game in his last 15, cashing the prop 73% of the time. He’s been shooting less, passing more and printing money in this market.

There’s a chance this will be a lower scoring game (Under hits 63% in Vegas home games this season, 2nd most); however, I feel the risk is offset by the fact NJD cover their Team Total 69% of the time on the road this season (2nd most).

The Slip

I got +687 odds for the parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e., half my normal bet size) to win 3.44U

I also sprinkled 0.5 units on each prop with straight bets (2 units risked total, including parlay)

Parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy. Please bet responsibly if tailing and best of luck tonight!

$FML Parlay
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