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$FML’s Best Bet - 11/8

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Buffalo Sabres (7-5) vs. Arizona Coyotes (4-6-1)

Buffalo cruised to a sizzling hot 7-3 start before losing two straight road games vs. tougher opponents (Carolina & Tampa Bay, both Eastern Conference finalists last year). Tonight they’re back home… and the Yotes are in town.

If you expect the Sabres to roll like me, then you should know that 6 of their 7 wins this season came by 2+ goal margins, and 5 of those 7 wins were secured by 3+ goal margins.

Meanwhile, 5 of Arizona’s 7 losses came by 3+ goal margins, and 4 of their 7 losses were by 4+ goal margins. Looking at Coyotes away games, all 4 of their road losses were by 3+ goal margins.

They just upset the Capitals with a 3-2 road victory, but it was of the lucky variety. They were outshot in that contest 36 to 26.

Buffalo is also a solid 4-2 at home with 1 of the 2 losses coming vs. a playoff team (Florida). Against non-playoff teams like Arizona, they’re outscoring opponents 24 to 16.

Mix all these facts together, and I see a perfect storm of a team due for a win (Buffalo) vs. a team due for an L (Arizona) and if we’re right, then the trends suggest we should back Buffalo to win by a multiple goal margin as they’ve done in 6 of 7 victories this season.

The Pick: Sabres -1.5 (+110)

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