$FML's Best NHL Bet - 11/23

$FML is 3-1 in his last 4 NHL Best Bets!

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Montreal Canadiens (9-9-1) at Columbus Blue Jackets (7-10-1)

It’s not really their fault, but the Columbus Blue Jackets are a team worth fading every time they step on the ice right now.

They’ve been plagued with the injury bug, headlined by the temporary loss of superstar sniper Patrik Laine (out until at least December 13th). They’ve been hit even worse on the blue line, where 4 of their top 6 defensemen are either on injured reserve or long-term IR (Zach Werenski, Jake Bean, Adam Boqvist, and Nick Blankenburg). This back-end collapse has opened the flood gates and led to an abundance of shots getting peppered on net by Columbus’ opponents.

The Jackets have now allowed 34+ shots on net in 10 straight games and 36+ in 8 of those 10…

FML Columbus Blue Jackets SOG stat

Meanwhile back at the ranch – the Team Shots on Goal market is slowly catching on… but I still see room to run. Montreal’s playing Back-to-Back (B2B) –not ideal– but they’ve eclipsed 32+ shots in 4 of 8 B2Bs under head coach Martin St. Louis. 3 of the 4 B2Bs that finished under were vs. playoff-caliber teams (Toronto, Boston, Washington). Against non-playoff teams, they’re averaging 32.25 shots in this spot under St. Louis.

$FML's Best Bet

In one B2B vs. Columbus last year, Montreal recorded 35 shots. I’m projecting similar output tonight – roughly 34.6 shots on net, +3.1 vs. this line. Montreal moneyline is tempting and a fine pivot, but for my best bet: I’m taking the value on the road dog to record 32+ shots.

The Pick: Montreal over 31.5 Shots on Goal (-112)

via Barstool, BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unibet

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