$FML's Friday Night NHL Parlay - 11/11

$FML’s Friday Night Parlay (+811)

ICYMI: I set a goal for myself to profit +5 units in Hockey by end of day Friday. This was on Tuesday, and we’re currently sitting at +0.82 units for the week with less than 12 hours to make up the difference. Not ideal, but I’m not deterred and remain confident. Let’s make a dent starting with this Friday Night Parlay paying more than 8-to-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Leg 1: Alex Ovechkin over 3.5 Shots (-170) vs. Lightning

This prop had a 71.4% hit rate across 92 home games in the last 3 seasons (excluding this one). This year, that hit rate is just 50%. Two of the four misses were by the hook (i.e. he finished with 3). Now he’s coming off a game where he only attempted 3 shots despite 6.3 minutes of Power Play time. That’s a true anamoly for the Great 8. Man is addicted to getting pucks on net and must be having withdrawals right now.

All that is to say — I view the Lightning as the perfect opponent to get his fix against. He’s averaging 6.33 shots per game in the matchup since 2017 — easily his most vs. any opponent in that stretch according to Statmuse:

Ovechkin Shots

This may, or may not, relate to a mini-rivalry I’m speculating he has with fellow countrymen Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Bolts. Below shows the game-by-game results from their last 13 head-to-head regular season contests. Betting Ovechkin to record 4+ shots on target was 12-1 in that stretch. His only miss was by the hook in a 5-2 blowout where he only played 16 minutes in Tampa Bay. Tonight, they’ve back in Washington where this bet is undefeated vs. the Lightning since 2017.

Ovechkin

TL/DR: Even if Carlson doesn’t play, I like Ovechkin to record 4+ shots here based on his matchup history and home/road split. If Carlson does play, then I’ll love this bet even more.

Leg 2: Penguins/Leafs Under 7 (-162)

I bought half a goal using the Alt Lines on Fanduel and took the Under. Here’s why. 9 of the last 10 meetings between these clubs saw 7 or fewer goals, and each of the last five played in Toronto finished with 5 goals or less. This matchup tends to play tight with a focus on defense. I also like how Toronto’s 5-2 to the UNDER in home games this season, and Pittsburgh’s 5-3 to the UNDER on the road. Neither side is allowing many high-danger scoring chances, and both offenses are struggling to consistently score, each averaging 3 goals per game or less.

If we lose the parlay on this leg I’ll be pretty pissed, but I feel it’s the right play here. The game total is inflated by the impression of star power on both sides. While there’s plenty of star power, it often cancels out in head-to-head matchups. 5 of Toronto’s 6 games this year vs. Playoff teams finished under 7 goals, for example.

Leg 3: Jason Robinson & Timo Meier both over 3.5 Shots (+255)

This bet is the secret sauce to our parlay. It’s listed in the “Player Performance Parlays” section on FanDuel for the San Jose Sharks vs. Dallas Stars game. If you’re risk averse or not on FanDuel, consider taking Jason Robinson over 2.5 shots instead as a safer pivot.

I view Timo Meier to record 4+ shots as virtually automatic at this point. He’s cleared this mark in 12 of 15 (80%) games this year (home + away) and 26 of his last 42 (62%) away games since last year. He’s averaging 5.2 shots on target per game on the season —a career high— which corresponds with a consistent boost in shot attempts (9.2 per game this year vs. 7.4 last year). The risk relates to this being a back-to-back (B2B) situation for the Sharks who just played last night. Betting Timo to record 4+ shots is 8-5 (62%) in B2Bs since last year but just 4-5 (44%) when the game is on the road. I feel that risk is balanced though by the Sharks being on a 5 game losing streak. Timo’s clearly playing with enhanced sense of urgency right now, and I don’t see him stopping till the losing streak snaps.

I view the Jason Robinson portion as the risk, but is 4+ shots really too much to ask to save our week? I think not. Here’s why. He’s landing 5.6 per game in his last five, which corresponds with a massive rise in shot attempts. In his last two games alone, he’s attempted 23 shots and landed 15 on target. The entire Dallas team only recorded 22 shots on target last game, and Robinson had 5 of them. That was a road game, and tonight they’re home where J-Rob landed 4+ shots in 9 of his last 15 (60%) since last season (including playoffs). I view the risk to this bet as the possibility he’s due for negative regression with respect to shot attempts. Attempting 10+ per game as an individual simply isn’t a sustainable practice. J-Rob’s a team player, and I won’t be surprised if he’s less trigger happy tonight. That said, I feel the risk is balanced by the fact he only landed 45% of his attempts on target last game. Even if he attempts less shots tonight, he can still achieve 4+ SOG by being more accurate with his attempts.

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The Slip

I got +811 odds for the parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half normal bet size) to win just over 4 units. Parlaying bets is a risky strategy so bet responsibly on this ticket and good luck!

P.S. — if and when we get Alt Shots Lines today, I might follow with a safer “Bankroll Builder” style bet on Twitter. Stay tuned.

FML SGP

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