$FML's Friday Night NHL Parlay - 1/27

• Brent Burns over 2.5 Shots (-165) vs. Sharks

To start the party, I’m backing the bearded Brett Burns to record 3+ Shots vs. his former team! In case you didn’t know, he spent 11 seasons with the Sharks before joining Carolina.

In their first meeting in October, Burns whipped 8 pucks towards the net but only landed 2 on target. The match was just the 2nd game of the season though, and Burns was still getting acclimated with his new team. It was also a Hurricanes road trip. 

Tonight he’s back home, and backing Burns for 3+ Shots is 15-6 (71%) at PNC Arena this year. This prop is also on a 9-0 run right now (both home and away) and 10-1 (91%) since New Year’s Day. It won’t cash every time, and he might be due for an under soon, but even if he is: I think it’s more likely to happen in a tougher upcoming matchup vs. Boston this Sunday.

The post-Burns era Sharks are respectable defensively (30.9 shots allowed per game), but 29% of their shots allowed are off the sticks of defensemen (9th highest % in the league), which is Burns’ position. That, plus the former team angle and home/road split, combine to make this a good play.

• John Tavares over 0.5 Points (-205) vs. Ottawa

Riding the hot hand in a favorable matchup. Betting the Leafs’ captain to find the scoresheet is 8-2 (80%) in his last 10 clashes with Ottawa. It’s also 9-3 (75%) in January. 4 of the 9 games that went “Over” were multi-point performances.

Friday night games have a weird tendency to be low scoring, but importantly: it hasn’t been an issue for Toronto. They’re averaging 3.33 goals per game on Friday nights since 2021. Betting Tavares to record a point was 4-2 (67%) in those contests. I also like how #91’s scoring contributions are nicely balanced between goals (21) and assists (27). It indicates that he doesn’t depend on one category or the other to record points. He’s versatile, confident and a Senators killer.

• Mason Marchment over 1.5 Shots (-160) vs. New Jersey

I don’t often fade New Jersey, but they absolutely deserve it here. They’re coming off their worst effort of the season last night in Nashville, where they allowed 41 shots, 6 goals and countless scoring chances to a mediocre Predators team. Enter the Dallas Stars, who play a very similar, gritty style as Nashville, only much better, and I smell trouble.

Everyone knows the Devils’ blistering speed sets them apart, but they lack size. To beat New Jersey, muscle matters, and Marchment has it. He’s an oversized power forward who performs well in this specific matchup, at least historically. He’s recorded 8 shots on net in 2 career meetings vs. New Jersey, finishing with exactly 4 each time, including once last month.

And you’re telling me we only need 2+ tonight, a number Marchment’s cleared at a 68% clip this season (34-16 to the over)?! Take my money.

I got +288 odds for the 3-leg parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (I.e. half my normal bet size) to win 1.44u!

Parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy, so please bet responsibly if tailing and best of luck tonight!