$FML's Friday Night Parlays - 10/21

I risked a full unit to win 1.48 at Caesars Sportsbook

• This is for the Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers game.
• These are two fast paced teams, and it’s a rivalry game.
• As a reminder: Tampa swept Florida out of the playoffs last year.
• This left a bad taste in Panthers’ mouth and inspired a roster shakeup that brought in superstar Matthew Tkachuk from the Calgary Flames.
• I view Tkachuk’s gritty style of play as the perfect counterpunch against a physical Lightning team. He recorded 5+ shots in both head-to-head (H2H) matchups vs. them last year (with Calgary).
• Betting him to record 4+ shots on goal is  4-0 since joining Florida this season. For parlay #1, we only need 3+.
• To get odds to +148, I paired with a bet that Lightning sniper Steven Stamkos will also record 3+ shots. This bet is 9-2 (81.8%) in their last 11 H2H regular season matchups and 16-5 (76.2%) including playoffs.
• It’s a small sample, but his shot numbers are up this season, recording 4+ shots in all 4 games and 5+ shots in 3 of the 4.

I risked 0.5 units to win 1.6 at Caesars Sportsbook

• Last time out, Kucherov finished with a Goose Egg (0 shots on net).
• This was a rare event that’s only happened 14 times in his last 201 games (7.0%).
• Our human nature may want to write him off, but it’s important to understand that he still attempted 5 shots that night, but they either missed the net or were blocked.
• The last 5 times he recorded 0 shots on net, he followed with 4+ shots on goal in 4 of the next 5 games.
• Kucherov’s shooting tendencies also exhibit a meaningful home/road split that swings in our favor tonight. He’s landing 3.7 shots on net per road game since 2021, up from 2.9 at home.
• This corresponds with consistently attempting more shots in away games (6.7 attempts per road game vs. 5.5 at home).
• Taken together, this is a perfect storm and good time to buy the dip on Kucherov for 3+ shots: he shoots more on the road and in games after a 0 shot performance. Tonight we get both.
• Also supporting this pick is the idea he’s yet to score a goal this season and is hungry to get one… which obviously requires shots. This is also a rivalry game.

I risked 0.25 units to win 3.74 at FanDuel

• For a safer bet, use 3+ for the first two legs. For my official parlay, I’m going 4+.
• Note I excluded Kucherov 4+ (though for the record… I do think he gets there).
• Legs 3 and 4 are for the Colorado Avalanche vs. Seattle Kraken game.
• Avs forward Valeri Nichushkin has been nearly automatic for 3+ shots since taking an increased role on the team last spring. He’s now recorded 3+ in 25 of his last 31 (80.6%) games including playoffs. For what it’s worth, he’s also been good for 4+ in most games, especially at home.
• I expect teammate Artturi Lehkonen to exhibit a similar trend this season in an increased role on Colorado’s 1st line. He’s attempted 5+ shots in 3 of 4 games so far, and betting him to record 3+ shots is 29-6 (83%) when he attempts 5+ shots since 2021.
• Lehkonen’s 1st line role means he’s playing alongside shot prop legend Nathan MacKinnon. While MacKinnon could steal the show any night and take Lehkonen’s shots, I still view this lineup as net positive for Artturi.
• MacKinnon tends to dominate puck possession and zone time, which opens up the ice and creates opportunities for linemates like Lehkonen to record shots on goal.