$FML's NHL Best Bet - 11/2

Toronto returns home from a long, 5-game road trip tonight. To put it kindly… said road trip did not go well, and they’re on a 4-game losing streak. As a reminder — the Maple Leafs are effectively the New York Yankees of Canada. Lose 4 games in a row and the media goes nuts. Lose 5 in a row? The city might riot.

The Leafs absolutely need to stop the bleeding with a strong effort here. No other choice. I don’t trust Toronto enough to back them to win; however, I do expect an abundance of shots on net and am betting accordingly.

Of the options for Shots, I like the value we’re getting on Morgan Reilly tonight.

The Leafs #1 Defenseman finished under 2.5 shots in 5 straight games, but they were all Road games. At home, betting him to record 3+ shots is 3-1 this year. Last game, he only attempted 1 shot. That only happened 4x in 89 games last season (regular season + playoffs). In the game after: he averaged 2.75 shots on 4.5 attempts.

Also supporting this pick: Philly’s allowing 35.8 shots per game (3rd most), of which 32.3% are flying off the sticks of defensemen (4th most). It’s also a Back-To-Back situation for them, and fatigue correlates with shots allowed. Tired legs are also associated with taking penalties, and Reilly plays on Toronto’s 1st Power Play Unit.

Morgan Reilly’s shot prop is not a stock, but if it were — I’d go Jim Cramer on it and buy the dip tonight.

The Pick: Morgan Reilly (TOR) over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+115) vs. Flyers
Odds via Draftkings | $FML Risked 1 Unit