$FML's NHL Best Bet - 11/21

THE NEW JERSEY DEVILS ARE 9-0 SINCE WE BACKED LINDY RUFF TO WIN COACH OF THE YEAR @ +3000. Big $FML Facts.

They’ve now won 12 straight and are seeking magic #13 on home ice tonight, which would tie a franchise record. Typical Monday night games in Newark, NJ see 50% capacity crowds max. TONIGHT THEY’RE SOLD OUT BABY, and our own MattyChucks will be in attendance.

Emotions aside – the real reason I’m writing about the Devils is more objective. I’ve been using a projection tool that I built to estimate Team Shots on Goal. We used the same method last year and had great success. Eventually the lines sharpened up and we pumped the breaks. Now we’re firing again, cranking out winners, and I’ve detected a few plays for tonight. Let’s capitalize while we can before the rest of the market catches up.

My #1 play is the New Jersey Devils to record 36+ Shots on Goal. This line is about a shot lower than my projected “fair line.” Not much different on the surface, but my model doesn’t account for the emotional edge I see the Devils holding tonight in a packed house with a franchise record on the line. Betting them to record 36+ shots is also 13-5 (72.22%) this season. In a recent visit to Edmonton on November 3rd, NJ recorded 43 shots. Meanwhile, the Oilers allow roughly +10% more shots on the road, and tonight they’re visitors.

Last year’s Devils peppered Edmonton with 41 shots in their visit to NJ. This year’s squad is even more talented, consistent and motivated for a good showing tonight. I also like how the Oilers are allowing 36.86 shots per 60 minutes on the road this season (5th most).

For all these reasons, I see value in a bet the Devils eclipse the 37+ shots mark again tonight. This betting market is available at Barstool Sportsbook, BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unibet. If you’re not on one of those books yet – consider joining and hopping on with us. I’ll share a few other picks for this market on Twitter today.

The Pick: NJ Devils over 35.5 Team Shots on Goal (-125)

via Barstool Sportsbook, BetRivers, SugarHouse or Unibet