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$FML's NHL Best Bets & Bonus +4033 Parlay - 12/19

Three Best Bets. All very much plus money along with a +4000 parlay. $FML is here for Monday's NHL action!

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Hampus Lindholm (BOS) over 0.5 Power Play Points (+660) vs. Florida

I sprinkled 0.2 units to win 1.32 units (FanDuel)

+660 for this?! It’s risky, but for the odds I feel this is an amazing bet. Here’s why: Boston is -225 to score a Power Play goal tonight. Florida takes the 5th most penalties, while Boston converts Power Plays at the 3rd highest rate (28.9%). Therefore, -225 for a PPG makes sense.

However, the pricing in a related Player Prop market does not make sense. Let me explain: Everybody knows Boston strategically use 4 Forwards and 1 Defenseman in these situations (different from the traditional 3 Forwards and 2 Defensemen). The lone defenseman’s job is effectively to quarterback the Power Play with crisp, tape-to-tape passes that set up Boston’s snipers for one-timers at the half wall. This creates tons of assist opportunities for the player in the defenseman role.Everybody knows Charlie McAvoy has been dominant in this spot averaging 11.33 points per 60 minutes with a man-advantage (2nd most out of all NHL players with 15+ minutes PP time).

What everybody does not know, apparently, is that Boston shuffled their Power Play rotations last game. Seeking a spark after going 1-for-6 on the PP Thursday, the Bruins replaced McAvoy with Hampus Lindholm in the defensemen slot on their 1st Power Play unit (PP1). The decision paid off, as the team converted an early PPG and went 2-for-3 on the game. Lindholm contributed a Power Play point, which leads me to expect similar rotations tonight. Assuming he stays on PP1, Lindholm should not be +650 to record a Power Play point vs. an undisciplined Florida team. FanDuel either has inside knowledge that the lineup is shifting back (unlikely) or is sleeping on the lineup change (more likely). Let’s capitalize on the mispricing while we can before they notice.

Leon Draisaitl (EDM) over 1.5 Points (+106) vs. Nashville

I risked 1 unit to win 1.06 units (FanDuel)

Mentioned last week and it’s still true: Nashville severely lacks discipline. It’s their Achilles heel, and if any team knows how to exploit, it’s these Oilers. In two matchups vs. the Predators this year, Leon Draisaitl already has 10 points. That is not a misprint. Dude is averaging 5 points per game in this matchup. This builds on his already stellar matchup numbers from last season. #29 now has 16 points in their last 5 meetings. That’s more than 3 points per game, with a good chunk of his production coming on the Power Play.

Draisaitl is also in peak form right now, recording multiple points in 7 of his last 10 games. This corresponds with being reunited with legendary superstar Connor McDavid on Edmonton’s 1st line. It should come as no surprise that Draisaitl is consistently recording multiple points per game in this lineup. Sportsbooks are clearly still sleeping on it, and tonight’s the perfect matchup to make them pay.

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Tage Thompson (BUF) over 1.5 Points (+164) vs. Vegas

I risked 0.75 units to win 1.23 units (FanDuel)

This 6-foot-6 unicorn of a forward is dominating the league right now. He’s averaging 2.3 points per game in his last 10, finishing with multiple points in 7 of those 10. He’s tallied 3 or more points in 4 of his last 8, including one game with an incredible 6 points (5 goals + 1 assist).

Most of his damage is coming on the Power Play, where Thompson’s averaging 1.3 points per game in his last 10. This makes Vegas, on paper, a tough matchup as they’re relatively disciplined. When you have a 100+ MPH bazooka for a shot, will it even matter, though? All he really needs is 2-3 PPOs to get convert one, and Vegas consistently gives opponents 2 Power Plays per game. Feels like they’re due for a 3 penalty game, too, which is all we need.

Even if Tage doesn’t record a Power Play point, I’ll take my chances on a bet he’ll record 2 or more in even-strength. Multiple key playmakers and defenders are the injured list for Vegas, which boosts the chances for a close game tonight. Given that plus Thompson’s recent form, this prop is worth a shot tonight at +165.

$FML's Longshot Parlay (+4033)

I sprinkled 0.1 units to win 4.03 units (FanDuel)

It’s risky but worth a small sprinkle based on the value I’m detecting in all 3 props! Bet responsibly if tailing and best of luck!

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