$FML's NHL Matchup Breakdown of the Day - 3/15

Colorado Avalanche (37-22-6) at Toronto Maple Leafs (40-18-8)

Easily the most intriguing NHL matchup on the slate, and it’s on National TV in the USA (TNT)! I didn’t place any bets (yet) but performed a deep-dive. Here’s what I found...

MATCHUP PREVIEW:

6 of the last 7 meetings had 7+ total goals…

• 12/31/22: TOR 2, COL 6
• 01/08/22: TOR 5, COL 4
• 12/01/21: TOR 3, COL 8
• 12/04/19: TOR 3, COL 1
• 11/23/19: TOR 3, COL 5
• 02/12/19: TOR 2, COL 5

Colorado won 4 of the last 5 played in Toronto, however...

• Toronto won the most recent 8-3 (Dec. 1, 2021)

Both sides benefited from scoring luck in the last 3 games…

• Colorado: 4.3 goals scored per 60 minutes vs. 3.1 expected (based on quality of scoring chances)
• Toronto: 4.7 goals scored per 60 minutes vs. 2.7 expected

Colorado’s goaltending significantly underperformed in the last 3 games…

• Allowed 3.6 goals per 60 minutes vs. 2.5 expected

While Toronto’s goaltending slightly underperformed in the last 3 games…

• Allowed 3.7 goals per 60 minutes vs. 3.4 expected

Roughly 64% of tickets are on Colorado ML; however, 63% of money is on Toronto…

• Toronto opened -140, briefly tightened to -155, but was bought back down to -140
• Colorado’s 8-4 straight up as a road underdog this year (+4.77 hypothetical units)
• However, they’re projected goalie (Alexandar Georgiev) historically struggles vs. Toronto (allowed 15 goals last 3 matchups)

Note: I didn’t place any bets (yet) but strongly considered these two angles!

Game Total UNDER 6.5 (-105 DK)

Pros

• Both teams benefited from a meaningful degree of scoring luck last 3 games (and what goes up must come down)
• Both goaltenders are statistically due for better performance soon, if not tonight
• Home/road splits also strongly support a pick on the Under, it’s:
• 19-14-2 in Toronto home games, and
• 19-10-2 in Colorado road games this season
• Against teams with 55%+ winning percentage, the Under is:
• 14-5-1 for Colorado
• 14-7 for Toronto
• 28-12-1 combined

Cons

• Georgiev (Avs projected goalie) historically struggles vs. Toronto; however, 5 of the 6 matchups occurred in 2019 or earlier
• 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams went over 6.5 total goals

Cale Makar UNDER 2.5 Shots (+125 DK)

Pros

• Averaging 2.6 SOG on the road this season vs. 3.4 at home (-24% drop off)
• Betting the Under 2.5 is 15-9 (62%) in these road games
• Toronto allows 5th fewest shots per 60 minutes on home ice
• Pre-All-Star Break: 29.8% of these shots were allowed to defensemen (4th most)
• Post-All Star Break: That number drops to 24.6% (5th fewest)
• Cale relies on the Power Play (PP) for roughly 27% of his shots
• However, the Leafs allow less than 4 PP shots per game since All-Star Break (6th fewest)
• Leafs also blocking 27.6% of shot attempts since All-Star Break (8th most)
• And they’re blocking 26.4% on a full-season basis at home (11th most)

Cons

• He didn’t record a shot last game (which is rare), and the last 3 times this happened, he went Over the next game
• 13 of his last 18 shot attempts missed the net or were blocked
• That translates to a 27.8% accuracy rate, well-below his season average (43.6%)
• The difference tells me he’s due for more accurate shooting soon, which is my biggest concern