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$FML's NHL Matchup Breakdown of the Day - 3/15

Colorado Avalanche (37-22-6) at Toronto Maple Leafs (40-18-8)

Easily the most intriguing NHL matchup on the slate, and it’s on National TV in the USA (TNT)! I didn’t place any bets (yet) but performed a deep-dive. Here’s what I found...

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$FML's NHL Matchup Breakdown of the Day

MATCHUP PREVIEW:

6 of the last 7 meetings had 7+ total goals…

  • 12/31/22: TOR 2, COL 6
  • 01/08/22: TOR 5, COL 4
  • 12/01/21: TOR 3, COL 8
  • 12/04/19: TOR 3, COL 1
  • 11/23/19: TOR 3, COL 5
  • 02/12/19: TOR 2, COL 5

Colorado won 4 of the last 5 played in Toronto, however...

  • Toronto won the most recent 8-3 (Dec. 1, 2021)

Both sides benefited from scoring luck in the last 3 games…

  • Colorado: 4.3 goals scored per 60 minutes vs. 3.1 expected (based on quality of scoring chances)
  • Toronto: 4.7 goals scored per 60 minutes vs. 2.7 expected

Colorado’s goaltending significantly underperformed in the last 3 games…

  • Allowed 3.6 goals per 60 minutes vs. 2.5 expected

While Toronto’s goaltending slightly underperformed in the last 3 games…

  • Allowed 3.7 goals per 60 minutes vs. 3.4 expected

Roughly 64% of tickets are on Colorado ML; however, 63% of money is on Toronto…

  • Toronto opened -140, briefly tightened to -155, but was bought back down to -140
  • Colorado’s 8-4 straight up as a road underdog this year (+4.77 hypothetical units)
  • However, they’re projected goalie (Alexandar Georgiev) historically struggles vs. Toronto (allowed 15 goals last 3 matchups)

Betting Angles to Consider:

Note: I didn’t place any bets (yet) but strongly considered these two angles!

Game Total UNDER 6.5 (-105 DK)

Pros

  • Both teams benefited from a meaningful degree of scoring luck last 3 games (and what goes up must come down)
  • Both goaltenders are statistically due for better performance soon, if not tonight
  • Home/road splits also strongly support a pick on the Under, it’s:
    • 19-14-2 in Toronto home games, and
    • 19-10-2 in Colorado road games this season
  • Against teams with 55%+ winning percentage, the Under is:
    • 14-5-1 for Colorado
    • 14-7 for Toronto
    • 28-12-1 combined

Cons

  • Georgiev (Avs projected goalie) historically struggles vs. Toronto; however, 5 of the 6 matchups occurred in 2019 or earlier
  • 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams went over 6.5 total goals

Cale Makar UNDER 2.5 Shots (+125 DK)

Pros

  • Averaging 2.6 SOG on the road this season vs. 3.4 at home (-24% drop off)
  • Betting the Under 2.5 is 15-9 (62%) in these road games
  • Toronto allows 5th fewest shots per 60 minutes on home ice
  • Pre-All-Star Break: 29.8% of these shots were allowed to defensemen (4th most)
  • Post-All Star Break: That number drops to 24.6% (5th fewest)
  • Cale relies on the Power Play (PP) for roughly 27% of his shots
  • However, the Leafs allow less than 4 PP shots per game since All-Star Break (6th fewest)
  • Leafs also blocking 27.6% of shot attempts since All-Star Break (8th most)
  • And they’re blocking 26.4% on a full-season basis at home (11th most)

Cons

  • He didn’t record a shot last game (which is rare), and the last 3 times this happened, he went Over the next game
  • 13 of his last 18 shot attempts missed the net or were blocked
  • That translates to a 27.8% accuracy rate, well-below his season average (43.6%)
  • The difference tells me he’s due for more accurate shooting soon, which is my biggest concern
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