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$FML's NHL Play of the Day - 11/30

$FML crafted us a little Player Points Parlay for Wednesday's 4-game NHL slate!

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All 4 contests tonight have relatively high game totals (o/u 6.5). This inspired me to sniff out a bet that would profit with scoring. My preferred angle that I’ll highlight here is a Player Points parlay. As a friendly reminder, the Points statistic in hockey includes Goals + Assists. To cash, we just need one (i.e. a goal or assist) from each player below.

Leg 1: William Nylander (TOR) over 0.5 Points (-210) vs. Sharks

The Sharks shutout the Canadiens last night. I watched most of the game, and the shutout result was LUCKY. They took 6 different penalties in the match and spent 12 minutes in the box. Not a winning strategy. Montreal went 0-for-6 on the Power Play but arguably should’ve scored at least once, if not twice. Sharks goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen was a BRICK WALL in net. Honestly, my groins hurt just watching him sprawl out for saves last night.

Fast forward to now and luckily for Toronto, Kahkonen’s performance earned him a well-deserved rest day. Starting in his spot will be Aaron Dell, a 3rd string goalie who was just recalled from the AHL (i.e. minor leagues) to join the team in Toronto for what marks the Sharks’ 3rd game in 4 nights.

This led me to target a Leafs player to record a point, and of the choices, I LOVE the value we’re still getting on William Nylander. The superstar forward has recorded at least one point in 20 of 24 (83%) Leafs games this year. That’s INSANE. Given those hit rates and the matchup, I’d expect closer to -250 for him to record a point. I also like how Nylander’s points production has been evenly balanced between goals (13) and assists (12) this season.

For what it’s worth, Nylander has also thrived in this head-to-head matchup, recording at least 1 point in 7 of 9 career vs. San Jose.

Leg 2: Tage Thompson (BUF) over 0.5 Points (-185) vs. Detroit

This former 1st round pick standing 6-foot-6 is thriving in all aspects of his game this season. He recently thrashed the Wings with a 6-point performance. Tonight, we only need 1.

Looking back to his 6-point game, I like how Tage recorded 4 of his 6 points in 5v5 (i.e. even strength). Lifting the hood on what happened, it’s clear his line absolutely dominated in every facet of 5v5 including puck possession, shot attempts and high-danger scoring chances. That won’t happen every time, but it’s a great sign vs. a team that doesn’t take many penalties.

The key to cashing points props vs. Detroit is dominating 5v5, and Tage has a proven track record getting it done in the matchup. It’s also worth noting two Red Wings defensemen are expected to miss tonight’s game with injuries. All these points lead me to back Tage with confidence for Leg 2.

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The $FML Slip:

I got +127 for the combo at Caesars Sportsbook and risked 1 unit to win 1.27 units. Yesterday was a tough day. Let’s cash and get back on track!

$FML Parlay
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