$FML's Tuesday Best NHL Bet - 11/29

$FML has Best Bet for tonight's NHL action; Let's keep cashing these!

⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+

While Team Shot Prop lines broadly sharpened in the last week, I’ve detected one worth highlighting for FlashPicks today. I locked it in to win a unit at Barstool Sportsbook. This prop market is also available at Sugar House, Bet Rivers and Unibet.

San Jose Sharks (7-13-1) at Montreal Canadiens (11-9-1)

It’s hard to quantify motivation, but this Sharks team should have it tonight! They’ve dropped 5 of their last 6 and are coming off a match where they dominated shots (35-20) but lost 4-3 in Overtime. Now they touch down in Montreal looking to get right.

We’ve been blessed with a discounted Team Shots line for them tonight based on the team’s home/road splits. At home, the Sharks are averaging 32.0 shots per game; however, on the road, that number drops to 27.3. Not ideal on the surface, but it’s much more palatable when you lift the hood and ask, why is this happening? That’s what I did. Here’s what I found.

The Sharks have had one of the toughest road schedules in the league so far. Just look at who they’ve played:

  • Sharks road schedule so far: Seattle, Vegas, Minnesota, Dallas, St. Louis, Philadelphia, New Jersey, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, Nashville Predators.

Montreal is no slouch, but looking at that list: they’re probably the 2nd weakest behind only Philadelphia. They’re currently on a 2-game win streak but are leaking shots, consistent with last year. Betting teams to get 29+ shots on net vs. Montreal is 15-1 (93.8%) in their last 16 games. Meanwhile, betting the Sharks to get 29+ on net is 10-4 (71.4%) in their last 14 despite tough scheduling.

My numbers have the “fair line” for this prop closer to 30.5 for tonight’s contest, +1.9 vs. the actual line listed at Barstool Sportsbook, Bet Rivers, Sugar House and Unibet (at time of writing). I trust my projections enough to call that solid value!

$FML's Best Bet

For what it’s worth, books that offer goalie props are listing Montreal goalie Jake Allen’s line at o/u 28.5. When the Team Shots Line at one book = Goalie Saves line at another book, it indicates one of the two lines is off. In this case, I’m fairly confident it’s the Team Shots.

The Pick: San Jose Sharks over 28.5 Shots (-125) vs. Montreal

$FML Best Bet
VA Exclusive: $100 Risk Free Bet
CLAIM NOW
New users in VA. 21+

Free Bets & Offers


Virginia: Bet $1 on anything & Get $365 Guaranteed
Deposit required. Bonus Bets winnings are added to Bonus Bets balance. Bonus Bet wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. CO, NJ, OH & VA only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. 21+
CLAIM NOW
Virginia: Bet $20, Win $200 in Free Bets
Promo Code: GET100. New users in VA. 21+.
CLAIM NOW
Bet $5 on any pre-game moneyline & Win $150 in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
$1,000 in Bonus Bets on any Sport in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
State Selector
Virginia
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2023 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.8.5 (1)