$FML's Tuesday Best NHL Bet - 11/29

$FML has Best Bet for tonight's NHL action; Let's keep cashing these!

While Team Shot Prop lines broadly sharpened in the last week, I’ve detected one worth highlighting for FlashPicks today. I locked it in to win a unit at Barstool Sportsbook. This prop market is also available at Sugar House, Bet Rivers and Unibet.

It’s hard to quantify motivation, but this Sharks team should have it tonight! They’ve dropped 5 of their last 6 and are coming off a match where they dominated shots (35-20) but lost 4-3 in Overtime. Now they touch down in Montreal looking to get right.

We’ve been blessed with a discounted Team Shots line for them tonight based on the team’s home/road splits. At home, the Sharks are averaging 32.0 shots per game; however, on the road, that number drops to 27.3. Not ideal on the surface, but it’s much more palatable when you lift the hood and ask, why is this happening? That’s what I did. Here’s what I found.

The Sharks have had one of the toughest road schedules in the league so far. Just look at who they’ve played:

• Sharks road schedule so far: Seattle, Vegas, Minnesota, Dallas, St. Louis, Philadelphia, New Jersey, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, Nashville Predators.

Montreal is no slouch, but looking at that list: they’re probably the 2nd weakest behind only Philadelphia. They’re currently on a 2-game win streak but are leaking shots, consistent with last year. Betting teams to get 29+ shots on net vs. Montreal is 15-1 (93.8%) in their last 16 games. Meanwhile, betting the Sharks to get 29+ on net is 10-4 (71.4%) in their last 14 despite tough scheduling.

My numbers have the “fair line” for this prop closer to 30.5 for tonight’s contest, +1.9 vs. the actual line listed at Barstool Sportsbook, Bet Rivers, Sugar House and Unibet (at time of writing). I trust my projections enough to call that solid value!

For what it’s worth, books that offer goalie props are listing Montreal goalie Jake Allen’s line at o/u 28.5. When the Team Shots Line at one book = Goalie Saves line at another book, it indicates one of the two lines is off. In this case, I’m fairly confident it’s the Team Shots.

The Pick: San Jose Sharks over 28.5 Shots (-125) vs. Montreal