$FML's Tuesday Best NHL Bet - 11/29

It’s hard to quantify motivation, but this Sharks team should have it tonight! They’ve dropped 5 of their last 6 and are coming off a match where they dominated shots (35-20) but lost 4-3 in Overtime. Now they touch down in Montreal looking to get right.

We’ve been blessed with a discounted Team Shots line for them tonight based on the team’s home/road splits. At home, the Sharks are averaging 32.0 shots per game; however, on the road, that number drops to 27.3. Not ideal on the surface, but it’s much more palatable when you lift the hood and ask, why is this happening? That’s what I did. Here’s what I found.

The Sharks have had one of the toughest road schedules in the league so far. Just look at who they’ve played:

• Sharks road schedule so far: Seattle, Vegas, Minnesota, Dallas, St. Louis, Philadelphia, New Jersey, NY Rangers, NY Islanders, Nashville Predators.

Montreal is no slouch, but looking at that list: they’re probably the 2nd weakest behind only Philadelphia. They’re currently on a 2-game win streak but are leaking shots, consistent with last year. Betting teams to get 29+ shots on net vs. Montreal is 15-1 (93.8%) in their last 16 games. Meanwhile, betting the Sharks to get 29+ on net is 10-4 (71.4%) in their last 14 despite tough scheduling.

My numbers have the “fair line” for this prop closer to 30.5 for tonight’s contest, +1.9 vs. the actual line listed at Barstool Sportsbook, Bet Rivers, Sugar House and Unibet (at time of writing). I trust my projections enough to call that solid value!

For what it’s worth, books that offer goalie props are listing Montreal goalie Jake Allen’s line at o/u 28.5. When the Team Shots Line at one book = Goalie Saves line at another book, it indicates one of the two lines is off. In this case, I’m fairly confident it’s the Team Shots.

The Pick: San Jose Sharks over 28.5 Shots (-125) vs. Montreal