@GriffyBets' NHL Power Play Points Picks - 10/28

GriffyBets | @griffybets

Tonight’s Anaheim Ducks-Vegas Golden Knights game offers us a nice opportunity to dig into the power play data and find a prop bet (or two).

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The Golden Knights should have power play success tonight

If you haven’t yet, you should likely get into the habit of loading up bets against Anaheim this season. The 1-5-1 Ducks have a cavalcade of issues from shots and goals allowed to power play opportunities allowed (PPOA) and penalty killing (PK).

It’s the latter two metrics that I’d like to dig into today. Anaheim comes into this one averaging 4.14 PPOA per game, the sixth-most in the league. They couple that high frequency of penalties with a 65.5% PK, the third-worst mark in the NHL.

In simpler terms: Anaheim allows teams to skate a man up a lot and have no idea how to stop them from scoring once they’re put in that position. This likely helps to explain why they’ve had so many problems to start the year, and we need to capitalize on it.

Vegas will see Anaheim today at 6 p.m. ET, giving us an earlier-than-usual game to root on. We logically need a piece, and targeting this Ducks PK is the way to do it.

Betting on two PowerPlay Points (PPP)

When a game like this presents itself, the first stop I take is a look over at the team’s top power play unit. For Vegas, that consists of Chandler Stephenson, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Jonathan Marchessault and Alex Pietrangelo.

We’re threading a fine line when we choose to pick out a few players from this group to record a PPP, but I stumbled on some quotes from Golden Knights’ coach Bruce Cassidy and some terrific writing over at The Athletic that shine a light on the men to watch on this power play line.

The first four games of the season saw Vegas struggle on the power play, but their shots and expected goals have both flown up over the past four games.

The biggest change seems to be credited towards the new positioning of Mark Stone.The Athletic writer, Jesse Granger, goes on to discuss that Stone is now taking on the “bumper” role in the middle of the power play, effectively acting as a facilitator in the middle to keep the puck moving and open up scoring chances.

Knowing that Stone is likely to touch the puck so often on a Vegas PP gives me the confidence that should (read: when) the Golden Knights notch a power play goal, Stone is likely to be involved in some form.

I’d like to spread the net on this belief and take a second player to be involved in the scoring, and the choice for me is Jonathan Marchessault. Cassidy moved Marchessault into a new role on the power play that allows him to shoot the puck more often. If you didn’t know, the best way to score a goal in hockey certainly starts by shooting the puck.

Cassidy is on the record saying the following: “When it rotates over to [Marchessault], hopefully he’s just thinking of pounding it to the net.”

We’re seeing some early results from Marchessault’s new positioning, as he has three power play shots and a PP goal in the last four games since this shift occurred.

Stone and Marchessault each have two PPPs this season, both in the same game for good measure. By all means, consider looking at some of the other members of this unit, and if it’s Eichel-Stephenson-Pietrangelo who record points on the power play I’ll probably cry.

Based on everything I’m seeing, it’s these two I want, and we get terrific prices.

@GriffyBets' Picks:

  • Betting .5u: Mark Stone PPP (+210 DK)
  • Betting .5u: Jonathan Marchessault PPP (+270 DK)

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