@GriffyBets' NHL Thursday Prop Picks - 11/3

Over three quarters of the league is playing tonight, which can make it a bit menacing to find your favorite props. Here’s four shot targets that are just a bit too juiced to play straight. We’ll be combining the early game targets and the late games, and for good measure a bet on each to score feels right as well...

I’ve been patiently waiting for Cole Caufield alternate shots to open up all morning, and I’m starting to get the feeling we’ll never get them. Thus, I’m forced to play him to reach three and pair him up.

The love for Caufield is relatively simple: he’s playing a Winnipeg team allowing 33.4 shots per game and his shots on the road have been much steadier than when he’s home. On the road, Caufield is averaging 6.8 attempts per game and 4.6 SOG/game. At home, those numbers dip to 5.4 attempts and 3.2/game.

We pair him with Dylan Larkin, who should have no issues getting some shots off against a depleted Washington Capitals team that is seeing 36.7 shots per game against them when the visitor.

Larkin is over 2.5 SOG in four of five home games and had seven total SOG in two home games against the Caps last season.

Where there’s shots, goals tend to follow. I’ve dusted off an old strategy of betting .5u on my shot targets to also score.

• .5u: Cole Caufield goal (+190 DK)
• .5u: Dylan Larkin goal (+175 DK)

I love this combo, and seeing it come out to +194 makes me love it even more. First, Tyler Toffoli, who is absolutely rolling right now.

Toffoli has 3+ SOG in six straight games, all of which have come at home, where he is again tonight. Nashville is a fine shot target, allowing nearly 32 per game, but where Toffoli should really find his edge is on the power play. The Predators are allowing the seventh-most power plays per game at 3.9, and Toffoli leads Calgary in PP shots (9).

We pair the forward with Bo Horvat of Vancouver.

Horvat is in a smash spot tonight at home against the Anaheim Ducks. No team is allowing more shots per game than the Ducks at 37.2, and they’re also the most generous team to shots from centers. The cherry on top is how often Anaheim has been penalized, because yes, Horvat is the PP shot leader for the Canucks.

Horvat went over 2.5 SOG in three of four against the Ducks last season and has 11 SOG in his last two games. Horvat also has four goals in these past two contests, both of which have come at home.

• .5u: Tyler Toffoli goal (+255 CZR)
• .5u: Bo Horvat goal (+185 DK)