I understand if you’re looking at this total with some skepticism. 6 points is low, especially the way these Avalanche have been able to score this season/playoffs. But we got the preview of this series already in Game 1, and it seems pretty clear that the trend will be towards less scoring. One thing that makes this Lightning team so great is how they’re able to make adjustments. After giving up 6 to the Rangers in Game 1 of the East Final, they proceeded to hold them to 3, then 2, then only 1 goal in 3 consecutive games. Vasilevskiy is very unlikely to go consecutive games giving up 4+ goals, he himself needs to adjust to a team they rarely faced this season.
On the other side, the Avalanche have one of the best young players in the league in Cale Makar anchoring the defense. If they aren’t able to score like they’re used to, you can be confident the defense will only get more focused. Expect this one to stay very low scoring and likely in favor of the Lightning at the end of the night.