@BurrOaks77's World Cup Semi Final Picks: France vs Morocco - 12/14

Burroaks77 | @burroaks77

BurrOaks77 is writing DAILY articles during the 2022 FIFA World Cup, right here on FlashPicks.com. Check out his picks for Wednesday's game below and if you're unsure on any of the terminology or markets be sure to read our quick and simple Soccer Betting Guide!

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France vs Morocco (2pm ET)

This is going to be an interesting matchup. Morocco has had a lot of success in this tournament playing in a low block, without possession, and looking to strike on the counter. France was very comfortable playing without the ball and looking for the counter vs England. I think France can adapt a little easier and employ tactics to be a ball dominant team in this one. I think Morocco may struggle if they allow France to build consistent pressure in the final third most of the game.

Morocco may have to come out of their comfort zone and attack France in a more traditional setup. I think that could be a perfect opportunity for France to spring a trap. Opening opportunities to get the ball in behind the midfield and do what they do best. Push pace and finish. Tactically, this game will be very interesting to watch. Morocco has been very comfortable defending and playing without the ball. Spain was unable to find success in breaking the block for a few reasons. First, they made way too many lateral passes. Possession is meaningless if you do nothing with it. Spain only started to get bodies forward and create pressure/ options when they subbed Nico Williams on for Torres. Second, they missed their opportunities when they created them. Spain had about three perfect balls on the back post that no one finished. That is because they were not making enough forward runs early, and their timing was off. Third, there was no sense of urgency. Portugal had better success and created much better chances vs Morocco. They kept the ball moving vertically and that made Morocco work harder. Portugal just did not have the finishing quality that day. Portugal had 11 shots, but only 3 on target. Morocco has a fair shot at winning this game. They must get France to overcommit players forward and score quickly on the counter.

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As I mentioned, France is also capable of playing well without the ball. If I am Deschamps, I would look to set a bit of a trap by letting Morocco have some possession and try to force them into changing tactics. Make Morocco play forward and give a more traditional look setting up an attack. Then France uses their speed and skill players to spring their own counter opportunities. If they don’t do something like that, France will need to possess the ball with purpose. They will need to continually put pressure forward and have guys making effective runs. They will need to have inch perfect passes and pepper the net early and often. This will lead to tired legs and substitution. With a depleted bench, That will become an issue if the game goes to ET or PK’s. Playing into Morocco's game plan. France will need to score early and look to put the game away late if they play this way.

Mbappe is obviously going to be a focal point for every team he plays. I think it will be difficult for him to score but not impossible. He will likely have a very interesting matchup with PSG teammate Hakimi who has been phenomenal this tournament. I believe Mbappe knows Messi has tied him in the golden boot race. I think he will want a goal today to retake the lead, but he won’t sacrifice his passing ability just to score if the option is there. Mbappe is a capable distributor as well as a scorer. I like some of the promotions on him, but I think his AGS price is a little low at +130. I will likely still take it though, because you rarely see him at a plus number. Rabiot shots and SOT will be another look I go back to if he’s healthy and starting. Rumors have been flying about an illness in France’s camp and Rabiot missed training yesterday. Lineups will be important for this game. Jules Kounde may be worth a look for a shot attempt. He put up two against Denmark and one against Poland. Shots will have to come from defenders and outside the box when facing a low block. His number may have some value. Predicting Morocco’s offense will be tricky. Lineups will be very important for this match.

BurrOaks' Picks:

Wait for lineups with the illness rumors. Recommending playing 0.5u on these.

You do not have to take them all. With the uncertainty surrounding France’s fitness, I will look to trim down the list of props closer to game time. These are just prices I see a lot of value in.

  • Draft Kings boost: Mbappe to score and france to win +250
  • Giroud AGS +185 @ FanDuel
  • Griezman assist +275 @ Barstool
  • Mbappe assist +320 @ FanDuel
  • Rabiot 1 SOT +170 @ Barstool
  • Rabiot 2 shots +140 @ Points Bet
  • Kounde 1 shot -105 @ FanDuel
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