Copa America: Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction, Preview & Betting Picks

For this game, we expect Mexico to edge out their opponents Ecuador, in this pivotal game in Group B. This game is expected to be close with the stakes involved and more than likely there be a goal either way in deciding the result. In two of the last three fixtures between the teams, the result has been decided by a single goal.

Both Mexico and Ecuador have also suffered single-goal defeats in this tournament. Santiago Gimenez is the one to watch for this game. The Feyenoord striker scored 23 league goals last season and in his first two COPA America games he is yet to score. Gimenez has registered two shots on target in two games this tournament.

We are going with a 2-1 victory for Mexico. Mexico have won three out of the last five games between the sides, with a single goal defining two of the games. Gimenez is also tipped to finally register his first goal of the tournament.

Mexico 2-1 Ecuador

The pivotal game in Group B features two teams, battling it out for the final qualification place within the group. Mexico takes on Ecuador, as both teams look to join Venezuela in the quarter-final stage.

Date: 07/01/2024

Kick-Off Time: 20:00 (ET)

Location: University of Phoenix Stadium

Mexico and Ecuador are tied level on points heading into the third and final group game, although Ecuador have a slight advantage in the standings. Ecuador are in second place on goal difference, which leaves Mexico in third place needing nothing more than a victory to second place. Ecuador with their goal difference advantage, only need a point to guarantee qualification, having also scored three more goals than Mexico in the standings.

Mexico began their campaign with a great start by beating Jamaica 1-0 in the opening game. Mexico would slightly feel aggrieved, by not pressing home their advantage with 61% of possession. Mexico grabbed the only goal of the game in the 69th minute through a brilliantly taken effort from Gerardo Arteaga.

The second game against Venezuela is where they were undone by a great Venezuelan defensive display. Mexico once again had a larger share of possession and created 2.88xG in the game, but fell victim to a penalty from Salomon Rondon, which leaves them at a disadvantage against Ecuador.

Ecuador’s campaign was the reverse of what Mexico had to endure, in that Ecuador lost their opening game and recovered brilliantly in the second game. In their opening fixture, they succumbed to a 2-1 defeat against Venezuela thanks to goals from Jhonder Cadiz and Eduard Bello. Ecuador had taken the lead in that game through Jeremy Sarimento, despite having talisman striker Enner Valencia dismissed for a high boot inside the first 25 minutes.

La Tri were brilliant in their second game against Jamaica. Kasey Palmer aided Ecuador with an own goal before Kendry Paez doubled their advantage just before half-time. Despite West Ham United striker Michail Antonio’s effort, Alan Minda secured Ecuador’s first Copa America win of the tournament with a late strike.

The last competitive meeting between the two teams resulted in a 2-1 win for Ecuador in the 2015 edition of the Copa America.

The game will be shown live on FOX, FS1, and the Fox Sports App.

Mexico Team News

Mexico changed their set-up from the opening game against Jamaica in their last game – opting to use a 4-1-4-1 formation with Santiago Gimenez leading the line in both games.

Ecuador Team News

Enner Valencia could return against Mexico following his recent suspension from the first game. Ecuador usually fields a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Mexico would be hoping that their recent form doesn’t play into effect when they face Ecuador. Mexico have lost three out of their last five games, only winning two games. In their last ten fixtures, they’ve only won four and their last draw took place against Germany in 2023. Mexico’s last two victories have both resulted in a 1-0 scoreline against Venezuela and Bolivia respectively.

Mexico manager, Jaime Lozano, will need to improve the attacking efficiency of his side. Mexico in their last five games, heavenly scored four goals, which averages 0.8 goals per game. Defensively, they’ve been relatively poor also, having conceded eight goals in five games – conceding on average 1.6 goals per game.

One of their more recent victories was a 3-0 win over Panama in the first leg of the CONCACAF Nations League semi-final. Despite showing in this tournament, they favour possession; Mexico managed this impressive victory conceding 59% of the ball and only having six shots on goal. From the six shots taken, Mexico created five big chances and scored three of them through Edson Alvarez, Orbelin Pineda and Julian Quinones.

Ecuador’s form going into this game, could be seen as an advantage for the side who currently sit in second place within the group. Ecuador have won three games out of their last five, having lost the remaining two. Ecuador have lost three from their last six games – considering they were on a run of six games without a defeat.

Under manager Felix Sanchez Bas, Ecuador have scored in each of their last four games, having gone two games without scoring against Italy and Argentina respectively. In their last four games, Ecuador have scored nine goals – averaging 2.25 goals per game. The unfortunate note for Ecuador is that defensively they would need to show better results. In their last five games, they have not kept a clean sheet.

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