@Matkafee Champions League Soccer Picks - 4/13

Matt Aka @Matkafee | @matkafee

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester City

For Manchester City, this match is sandwiched between Premier League and FA Cup Semi-Final matches with Liverpool. They have a narrow 1-0 lead from the first leg thanks to a second half strike from Kevin De Bruyne. Diego Simeone’s approach of parking the bus in the first leg was successful enough, and they now have a chance to advance at home.
I expect Atletico will lose the possession battle because even if he wanted to, it's not in Pep Guardiola’s DNA to sit back and defend a lead. The best way through this tie is to score the first goal and force Atletico out of its shell. I expect Manchester City to score in the first half and you can bet that at DraftKings at -120. I’m also backing Riyad Mahrez to score at +205 on BetRivers.

Liverpool v Benfica

Liverpool are in the same exact spot as Manchester City but in reverse. Having failed to beat City on the weekend, they no longer control their own destiny in the Premier League. They do however find themselves in a better spot than City in the Champions League by having the second leg at home and possessing a two goal advantage over a less dangerous opponent.
I believe that Klopp rotates the quad a bit today and grants starts in attack to Firmino and Diaz who both came off the bench on Sunday. Benfica have nothing to lose and will need to venture forward if they are to overcome the two goal deficit. This will undoubtedly leave spaces in behind and I suspect the pace and technique of Diaz will present him with a goal scoring opportunity. I’m backing the former Porto man to find the back of the net on BetRivers at +155.

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