March Madness 2023 Final Four betting preview

Jack Stradley | @bestdunks

Final Four Betting Preview

The Final Four is set. Miami and San Diego State are the favorites over Connecticut and Florida Atlantic, respectively. None of these teams were expected to be here and the highest remaining seed is the No. 4 UConn Huskies. They are also 5.5-point favorites to beat Miami. In the other game San Diego St. is just 2.5-point favorites over the tournament sleeper, Florida Atlantic.

Miami vs UConn -5.5 O/U 149

The Miami Hurricanes have had a memorable run so far to the Final Four. This team has arguably had the toughest path to this point yet they have had little issues with any team along the way. As a five seed in the tournament, Miami was the clear favorite against the 12 seed Drake, but it also proved to be their closest contest yet as they won by just seven points. In their next matchup the Hurricanes were slated against No. 4 Indiana in a game they were expected to lose. They ended up winning by 16 points. Now Houston was a team and No. 1 that would for sure take down Miami, right? Wrong, and it wasn’t even close as Miami beat them by 14 points. In the Elite 8 Miami was the underdog again to No. 2 Texas but they ended up beating them by seven to get to the Final Four.

If you thought that Miami had been crushing top teams in the tournament, UConn has done it to an even greater extent. Opening up the tournament No. 4 UConn beat Iona by 14 and believe it or not, this was their closest game so far. In the round of 32 the Huskies beat St. Mary’s by 15 and followed that up by trouncing Arkansas by 23 points. It was expected to be a close game against Gonzaga in the Elite 8 but UConn had no issues, beating them 28 points that set them up for this game against Miami.

A large points buffer this far in the tournament was granted to UConn as they were given 5.5 points on the spread over Miami. Neither of these teams have had much trouble thus far and now facing off against one another we could see the first close game for either team. A 149-projected-point total is one of the highest we have seen in the tournament so far. Expect an exciting and epic battle as these teams both have a chance to play for the NCAA Title.

San Diego St. vs Florida Atlantic +2.5 O/U 131.5

The Florida Atlantic Owls have made just their second tournament appearance ever and got their first tournament win in program history just a couple of weeks ago. Now they find themselves playing a game that could send them to the NCAA Championship. Their first-round game was a grind as they beat Memphis by just one point. If one thing went different in that game they could have been an afterthought in this tournament. Following that they had a favorable matchup against Fairleigh Dickson who was a 16 seed. After that win FAU still was a big underdog to Tennessee but they managed a seven-point win. In the Elite 8 FAU again found themselves as the underdog to Kansas State but they pulled off a win by three to get to the final Four.

For San Diego State they had an easy time in the first two rounds playing a 12 seed followed by a 13. The Sweet 16 paired them up against No. 1 Alabama which proved to not be a problem for them. Now they were taken seriously and got a matchup against Creighton. The Aztecs were able to squeak out a win by just one point after a last-second free throw to win and get them to this point.

This game is expected to be close as San Diego State is given just 2.5 points on the spread. FAU has proven they are not an easy exit and we should see a close game here between two truly unexpected tournament teams. A 131.5 total in this game makes this game projected to be a grind it out and battle type of contest. Neither of these teams have scored a ton in a single game in the tournament so far, so it seems like a fair total. Expect this game to be down to the wire and close the entire way. These two teams have made it too far to not give 100% of their effort in this game and it should be a spectacle to watch.

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